522
FXUS64 KTSA 272338
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR, MAINLY FOR BRIEF AND WEAK LANDSPOUTS OR SPOTTY
DAMAGING WIND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE RED RIVER AND FAR SE OK. TO THE
EAST AND NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION, BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
A VERY TROPICAL-LIKE ENVIRONMENT EXIST, AND SOME OF THESE HAVE
EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS OF SURFACE VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CAPE (A GOOD PROXY
FOR LANDSPOUT ENVIRONMENTS) SUGGESTS IT IS NOT IDEAL, BUT THERE
IS SOME OVERLAP IN THE PARAMETER SPACE TO YIELD AT LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL CAPE SHOULD WANE
AFTER SUNSET, ENDING THE THREAT. POPS AND THUNDER PROBS WERE ALSO
UPDATED WITH THE LATEST DATA.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY.
AS IT DOES SO, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE BENEATH
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ACT ON A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS IT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TOWARDS CENTRAL OK WITH TIME. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE SITTING
NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT'S
COMMONLY THE CASE THAT THERE IS A LESS STORM ACTIVITY RIGHT UNDER
THE UPPER LOW, WITH BETTER FORCING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY, AS SUCH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR. EITHER WAY, IT WILL BE ANOTHER
TEMPERATE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE
SAME, EXCEPT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY
CHURNS EASTWARD. IN THE END, IT WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS, EXCEPT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING POKES IN
FROM THE WEST.
ON SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST. IT WILL MOVE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW/LIFT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED IN THE REGION. MODELS THEN DEVELOP RIDGING JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTING IN. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE IS
AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BECOME TOO STRONG FOR ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A PRETTY UNSETTLED TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. ACROSS NE OK, EXPECT STEADY SHOWERS
AND SOME STORMS THROUGH 06Z. ACROSS SE OK, STEADY SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END WITHIN A FEW HOURS. SPOTTY SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. ACROSS NW AR, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE SITES BY 04Z OR 05Z, AND THEN
THERE MAY BE A BREAK DURING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS BEFORE MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
MORNING WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR BEFORE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY BACK TO VFR,
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 65 79 65 82 / 90 70 40 30
FSM 67 82 66 84 / 90 50 30 50
MLC 66 82 66 85 / 70 40 30 40
BVO 64 78 62 82 / 80 80 40 20
FYV 65 78 64 80 / 80 70 50 70
BYV 64 76 63 78 / 70 70 50 80
MKO 65 79 65 82 / 90 50 40 50
MIO 66 78 64 80 / 70 80 60 60
F10 64 80 64 83 / 80 50 40 40
HHW 66 83 66 85 / 50 20 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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