718
FXUS64 KTSA 281655
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH LESSENING
CHANCES ELSEWHERE BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MINOR FLOODING, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. A LIMITED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO OCCUR.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF TULSA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ROTATE AROUND THIS
CIRCULATION, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF CARROLL COUNTY ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER, BUT NON ZERO, IN THE
COMING DAYS. WITH ADDED SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
BY THE WEEKEND. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS, INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER, SO A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DESPITE
MARGINAL WIND PROFILES. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED, WITH DAILY
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND A
VERY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N TO NW ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS VARYING FROM LOW VFR TO PERIODIC IFR.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON WHILE
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOCUS FROM NE OK INTO NW AR. AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES
THEN DECREASING FROM MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER AFTER WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
BECOMING COMMON ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 85 68 88 / 40 10 40 30
FSM 66 86 68 90 / 30 20 10 40
MLC 66 88 70 90 / 20 10 20 10
BVO 64 84 66 88 / 50 20 50 40
FYV 64 83 65 87 / 40 50 20 50
BYV 64 79 64 85 / 70 60 20 60
MKO 65 85 68 88 / 30 10 30 20
MIO 65 83 66 87 / 50 30 40 50
F10 65 86 68 89 / 20 10 30 20
HHW 66 88 70 90 / 20 10 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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