064
FXUS64 KTSA 281657
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1157 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH LESSENING
CHANCES ELSEWHERE BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MINOR FLOODING, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. A LIMITED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO OCCUR.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF TULSA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ROTATE AROUND THIS
CIRCULATION, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF CARROLL COUNTY ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER, BUT NON ZERO, IN THE
COMING DAYS. WITH ADDED SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
BY THE WEEKEND. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS, INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER, SO A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DESPITE
MARGINAL WIND PROFILES. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED, WITH DAILY
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND A
VERY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IN GENERAL,
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER CEILINGS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OK,
AND THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST AR. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
UNDER ANY SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT, LOW CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP FOR ALL
TERMINALS AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-40. WIND WILL
MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 66 85 68 / 80 40 10 40
FSM 82 66 86 68 / 50 30 20 10
MLC 82 66 88 70 / 60 20 10 20
BVO 78 64 84 66 / 90 50 20 50
FYV 80 64 83 65 / 50 40 50 20
BYV 77 64 79 64 / 90 70 60 20
MKO 79 65 85 68 / 70 30 10 30
MIO 79 65 83 66 / 80 50 30 40
F10 80 65 86 68 / 70 20 10 30
HHW 82 66 88 70 / 30 20 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06
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