202
FXUS64 KTSA 291648
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, MINOR
FLOODING, AND MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE AREA
OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN KS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPED ON ITS BACK-END
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE NOON, MRMS QPE
INDICATES A FEW SWATHS OF TWO-TO-FOUR-INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
HEAVIEST IN FAR EASTERN PUSHMATAHA/SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTIES,
WHERE OVER FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN SAMPLED BY RADAR. RAIN
CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. LATEST HI-RES MODEL DATA SHOW ISOLATED
ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE FROM SREF AND HREF SUGGEST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE, THICKNESS, AND DURATION, BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL OCCUR IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL SINCE THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH LOWER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACING IT OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING
THETA-E VALUES MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BY MID FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
MARGINAL SHEAR, AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST A STRONG
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NSSL WRF AND WRF ARW ARE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAN OTHER HI-RES MODELS. A
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AS A UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSES INTO WESTERN OK AND ENHANCES LIFT. IF STORMS ARE ABLE
INITIATE AND STAY ORGANIZED AS THE MOVE INTO EASTERN OK FROM THE
WEST, BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MORE SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP HEAT
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 80S BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES IN SPOTS.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM SATURDAY MORNING, MOSTLY
IMPACTING PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. BY MIDDAY
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF
A DRYLINE THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK. IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER, A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN OK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LOSE
STRENGTH AND SUPPORT AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE FORECAST AREA. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS
THIS HAPPENS, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW
ANOTHER MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGING. IF THIS
VERIFIES, ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ARISE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MID LEVEL
CEILINGS, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY REDUCED CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY FOR ANY LOCATION WHERE THEY OCCUR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THESE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OK FIRST, AND INTO AR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT, FAVORING THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 83 70 89 72 / 30 40 10 20
FSM 86 69 91 71 / 20 20 10 10
MLC 87 72 91 74 / 30 10 0 10
BVO 83 67 89 69 / 30 40 20 20
FYV 82 66 87 68 / 40 40 30 20
BYV 79 64 85 67 / 40 50 50 30
MKO 83 70 90 72 / 20 20 10 10
MIO 82 67 87 70 / 40 50 30 20
F10 85 70 90 72 / 30 20 10 10
HHW 86 72 90 73 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06
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