783
FXUS64 KTSA 300434
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH
TRIPLE DIGITS IN A FEW SPOTS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION HAS FLIPPED BACK TO THE MORE
TRADITIONAL W TO SW FLOW AND INCREASED SOME, AS AN UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SUBTROPICAL JET
AHEAD OF IT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IT WAS AN ACTIVE
DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK, WITH NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE
DRYLINE AND PRODUCING BIG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS LARGELY STAYED OUT OF NE OK THUS FAR, THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
CHANCE LINGERING WAA ACTIVITY SLIDES ACROSS FAR NE OK CLOSE TO THE
KS BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT SIGNALS
PRESENTED IN CAM DATA GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME RUNS HAVE
SUGGESTED MCS DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE KS BORDER WITH ACTIVITY
EVENTUALLY BENDING SOUTHEAST TO CLIP PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND LEAVING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATER RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM
THIS SCENARIO. POPS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL USE THE RAW 1 HR NBM
POP INSTEAD OF PPI, BACKING AWAY FROM LIKELY POPS IN THE
NORTHEAST. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE DRYLINE OUT WEST.
MARGINAL WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LATE MAY
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LACY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY STORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR WEST AND AFFECTING OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 90S, AND COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY IN PLACE WILL
YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK IN SOME SPOTS. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE
AMPLIFIES/BROADENS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
AND HEAT INDICES NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGITS IS EXPECTED. AFTER ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY TUESDAY WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL DIAL BACK A BIT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BACK-DOORS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS SCENARIO. THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL RAMP
UP BY NEXT FRIDAY.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OK THIS EVENING, AND RESULT IN
AT LEAST BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT NE OK
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 06Z. POTENTIAL IMPACTS FARTHER EAST INTO
NORTHWEST AR REMAIN LESS CERTAIN THOUGH PROB30 WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CARRIED OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG APPEARS LESS
TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF STORMS
TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF STORM IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL FOG, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A BIT STRONGER SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 70 90 72 92 / 30 20 20 0
FSM 69 93 72 93 / 10 20 10 10
MLC 73 92 75 93 / 10 10 10 0
BVO 67 90 69 92 / 60 30 40 0
FYV 67 88 71 89 / 20 30 20 10
BYV 64 85 68 87 / 30 50 30 20
MKO 70 90 72 91 / 20 10 20 10
MIO 67 89 70 91 / 40 40 40 10
F10 70 90 71 93 / 10 10 20 0
HHW 72 90 73 92 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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