995
FXUS64 KTSA 300542
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1242 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH
TRIPLE DIGITS IN A FEW SPOTS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION HAS FLIPPED BACK TO THE MORE
TRADITIONAL W TO SW FLOW AND INCREASED SOME, AS AN UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SUBTROPICAL JET
AHEAD OF IT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IT WAS AN ACTIVE
DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK, WITH NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE
DRYLINE AND PRODUCING BIG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS LARGELY STAYED OUT OF NE OK THUS FAR, THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
CHANCE LINGERING WAA ACTIVITY SLIDES ACROSS FAR NE OK CLOSE TO THE
KS BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT SIGNALS
PRESENTED IN CAM DATA GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME RUNS HAVE
SUGGESTED MCS DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE KS BORDER WITH ACTIVITY
EVENTUALLY BENDING SOUTHEAST TO CLIP PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND LEAVING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATER RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM
THIS SCENARIO. POPS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL USE THE RAW 1 HR NBM
POP INSTEAD OF PPI, BACKING AWAY FROM LIKELY POPS IN THE
NORTHEAST. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE DRYLINE OUT WEST.
MARGINAL WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LATE MAY
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LACY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY STORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR WEST AND AFFECTING OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 90S, AND COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY IN PLACE WILL
YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK IN SOME SPOTS. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE
AMPLIFIES/BROADENS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
AND HEAT INDICES NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGITS IS EXPECTED. AFTER ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY TUESDAY WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL DIAL BACK A BIT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BACK-DOORS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS SCENARIO. THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL RAMP
UP BY NEXT FRIDAY.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WILL CONTINUE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO
GROUP FOR TIMING. FOR SATURDAY, SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST, WHILE ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES REMAIN. THE
GREATER STORM POTENTIAL IS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS, HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR GENERAL
TIMING. BY MID/LATE EVENING SATURDAY, MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO
REMAIN. WINDS START OUT LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND BECOME BREEZY
OUT OF THE SOUTH SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 92 73 93 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 72 93 72 94 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 75 93 74 94 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 69 92 71 93 / 40 0 0 10
FYV 71 89 72 91 / 20 10 0 10
BYV 68 87 68 89 / 30 20 10 20
MKO 72 91 72 92 / 20 10 0 0
MIO 70 91 71 91 / 40 10 10 10
F10 71 93 72 94 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 73 92 72 93 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20
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