968
FXUS64 KTSA 310436
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING FAR NE OK INTO NW AR.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AND HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
REACH TRIPLE DIGITS IN A FEW SPOTS EACH DAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ON THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WERE
MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER AND STAYED WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WAS
OVER NW AR, FIRST WITH MORE SPOTTY STORMS AND THEN WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS OVER SW MO. THOSE STORMS HAVE FADED
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT FAIRLY QUIET
ACROSS THE AREA, ASIDE FROM SOME ELEVATED SPOTTY SHOWERS. THERE ARE
HINTS IN THE DATA OF SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR NE OK AND NW AR. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON
SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A HOT AND HUMID DAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S EXPECTED,
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL TOUCH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THE LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND ON THE EDGE OF
THE CAP OVER NW AR AROUND AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.
LACY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES/BROADENS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND HEAT INDICES NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGITS IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER
RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL DIAL BACK A BIT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BACK-DOORS SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES SHOULD STAY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS SCENARIO. THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL
RAMP UP NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASING
AHEAD OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING JUST SOUTH OF THE KS BORDER INTO NERN OK
WILL CONTINUE A THREAT OF TSRA AT BVO INTO THIS EVENING, WARRANTING A
PROB30 GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS. TSRA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN
MO AND NWRN AR THIS EVENING, WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND
06Z. OUTSIDE OF TSRA, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. TSRA CHANCES ARE NONZERO NERN OK AND NWRN AR SITES LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME WITH MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 93 73 94 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 72 93 72 95 / 20 20 10 0
MLC 74 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 69 93 71 94 / 30 10 10 0
FYV 69 89 73 92 / 30 20 10 10
BYV 67 87 69 89 / 30 40 20 10
MKO 72 92 72 93 / 20 10 0 0
MIO 70 91 71 92 / 30 10 20 0
F10 71 93 72 95 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 73 92 73 94 / 0 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...69
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