833
FXUS64 KTSA 010144
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 842 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES.
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WITHIN A PERSISTENT ZONE OF CONVERGENCE. IT IS UNLIKELY ANY
OF THIS WILL REACH NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS POINT THIS EVENING,
AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND IS EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARDS MISSOURI. SOME CAM DATA
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY TO SURGE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT,
FORCING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO OUR CWA. ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT VERY LOW TO LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ALONG THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS AFTER MIDNIGHT, OTHERWISE
FORECAST TRENDING WELL WITH ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM NIGHT AHEAD
UNDER VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS.
69
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP 100 DEGREES AT A
FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
TOO LOW TO MENTION THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL AGAIN TOP OUT OVER 100 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, AND MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS
MAINLY MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WILL BOTH LOWER SLIGHTLY TUESDAY, WITH EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BY WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY JUNE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING, AND SOME MAY
COME CLOSE TO BVO LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES BY LATE EVENING. POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY TO PASS OVER NERN OK SITES TONIGHT. FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE
AREA MONDAY, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 95 71 90 / 10 10 20 10
FSM 73 95 72 91 / 0 10 20 10
MLC 74 95 72 93 / 0 10 10 10
BVO 71 93 67 89 / 20 10 20 10
FYV 71 92 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 70 90 67 83 / 10 10 10 0
MKO 73 94 71 91 / 0 10 20 10
MIO 72 92 69 87 / 10 10 10 10
F10 73 95 70 91 / 0 10 10 10
HHW 73 94 73 94 / 0 10 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69
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