214
FXUS64 KTSA 010436
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES YET AGAIN.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES DIALING BACK SEVERAL DEGREES.
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK PUSHED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA, THOUGH TULSA
RIVERSIDE AIRPORT DID GET TO 106 HEAT INDEX, MAKING CRITERIA. A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH-CENTRAL DOWN TO SOUTHWEST OK SET OFF SOME
BRIEF ATTEMPTS AT STORMS, HOWEVER NOTHING COULD GET GOING AND THE
FORECAST AREA STAYED DRY. SEVERAL EARLIER HRRR RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED
THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN KS COULD PUSH
OUTFLOW INTO NE OK LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES
UP AGAINST THE KS AND MO BORDERS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FORECAST TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ON MONDAY FOR
THE CHANCE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT NOT QUITE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. THERE ARE NOW HINTS AT LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AN
ADVANCING OUTFLOW/FRONT BACK-DOORING FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS STILL SLOWLY RISING AND THE RIDGE CENTER SITTING OVER THE
RED RIVER, THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WILL NOT BE OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED CONVECTION, UNLESS A STORM CLUSTER CAN RIDE AN OUTFLOW.
INSERTED A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS STARTING LATE
AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE EVENING.
LACY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CAMS ARE NOW PRETTY AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS/COMPLEXES RIDING OUTFLOW TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN MORE SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL ACTIVITY THAT PUSHES INTO NE OK COULD HAVE SOME DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL, WITH LESSENING SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTERWARD. DEPENDING
ON HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, SOME STORM CHANCE COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTH
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE THE RIDGING THAT STILL EXISTS ALOFT. THIS
MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT
CERTAINLY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL DIAL BACK BY WEDNESDAY AS AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BACK-DOORS SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE BEST RAIN/STORM
CHANCES SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHIFTS EAST BY THURSDAY, WITH SW FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
THE EXPANSIVE EASTERN CONUS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST, AND
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN. RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING, AND SOME MAY
COME CLOSE TO BVO LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES BY LATE EVENING. POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY TO PASS OVER NERN OK SITES TONIGHT. FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE
AREA MONDAY, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 94 71 88 / 0 20 30 30
FSM 73 95 72 89 / 0 10 20 30
MLC 76 95 72 91 / 0 10 10 20
BVO 71 93 69 87 / 10 10 30 20
FYV 73 91 70 86 / 10 20 20 20
BYV 70 89 67 81 / 20 30 10 10
MKO 73 93 71 89 / 0 10 20 30
MIO 72 91 69 85 / 20 20 10 10
F10 73 95 70 89 / 0 10 20 20
HHW 73 93 72 92 / 0 0 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...69
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page