169
FXUS64 KTSA 011130
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES YET AGAIN.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES DIALING BACK SEVERAL DEGREES.
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK PUSHED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA, THOUGH TULSA
RIVERSIDE AIRPORT DID GET TO 106 HEAT INDEX, MAKING CRITERIA. A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH-CENTRAL DOWN TO SOUTHWEST OK SET OFF SOME
BRIEF ATTEMPTS AT STORMS, HOWEVER NOTHING COULD GET GOING AND THE
FORECAST AREA STAYED DRY. SEVERAL EARLIER HRRR RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED
THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN KS COULD PUSH
OUTFLOW INTO NE OK LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES
UP AGAINST THE KS AND MO BORDERS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FORECAST TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ON MONDAY FOR
THE CHANCE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT NOT QUITE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. THERE ARE NOW HINTS AT LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AN
ADVANCING OUTFLOW/FRONT BACK-DOORING FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS STILL SLOWLY RISING AND THE RIDGE CENTER SITTING OVER THE
RED RIVER, THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WILL NOT BE OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED CONVECTION, UNLESS A STORM CLUSTER CAN RIDE AN OUTFLOW.
INSERTED A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS STARTING LATE
AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE EVENING.
LACY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CAMS ARE NOW PRETTY AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS/COMPLEXES RIDING OUTFLOW TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN MORE SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL ACTIVITY THAT PUSHES INTO NE OK COULD HAVE SOME DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL, WITH LESSENING SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTERWARD. DEPENDING
ON HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, SOME STORM CHANCE COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTH
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE THE RIDGING THAT STILL EXISTS ALOFT. THIS
MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT
CERTAINLY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL DIAL BACK BY WEDNESDAY AS AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BACK-DOORS SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE BEST RAIN/STORM
CHANCES SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHIFTS EAST BY THURSDAY, WITH SW FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
THE EXPANSIVE EASTERN CONUS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST, AND
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN. RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
LACY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM THIS MORNING, WHILE
ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE AND IMPACT TO ANY ONE TERMINAL. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH A POTENTIAL
MCS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF KANSAS. WILL ADD PROB30 GROUPS TO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WITHIN ANY
CONVECTION, A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
CAPABLE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 94 71 88 67 / 20 30 30 0
FSM 95 72 89 65 / 10 20 30 0
MLC 95 72 91 68 / 10 10 20 0
BVO 93 69 87 65 / 10 30 20 0
FYV 91 70 86 61 / 20 20 20 0
BYV 89 67 81 57 / 30 10 10 0
MKO 93 71 89 66 / 10 20 30 0
MIO 91 69 85 63 / 20 10 10 0
F10 95 70 89 66 / 10 20 20 0
HHW 93 72 92 68 / 0 20 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20
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