787
FXUS64 KTSA 160400
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1100 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1051 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
STORMS TUESDAY AND MEDIUM CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
- A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE NORTH, AND MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH. AS WE SAW THE PREVIOUS MORNING, A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS MAY DEVELOP. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NOTICEABLY OVER MONDAY, REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE POOLING AND CONVERGENCE, SO ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A FEW ADDITIONAL LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD FORM,
AND SOME CAMS SHOW THIS, BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. SO WILL JUST
LEAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER THE THREAT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WASH
OUT BY THE EVENING, WITH NO ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED AFTER THAT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY, SENDING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 70S
AND INCREASING THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
105 F IN A FEW LOCATIONS, BUT STRONG WINDS MAY KEEP THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURE A BIT LOWER. THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
EVALUATED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHEN IT ARRIVES IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INCREASE WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
I-40. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ATTEMPT TO WARM AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BRIEFLY RESTRENGTHENS, SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER WET
PATTERN WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE VALLEY AT KFYV.
IN ADDITION, THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE KS AND MO BORDERS.
INSERTED PROB30 MENTION AT KXNA AND KROG AFT 21Z. SFC WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BLO IMPACTFUL LEVELS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 88 74 92 / 0 10 10 0
FSM 66 89 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 66 89 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 59 89 71 94 / 0 20 10 0
FYV 59 85 68 88 / 0 10 10 0
BYV 58 84 67 88 / 0 10 10 0
MKO 63 87 71 90 / 0 0 10 0
MIO 60 85 70 90 / 0 30 10 0
F10 63 88 71 91 / 0 0 10 0
HHW 68 87 71 90 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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