129
FXUS64 KTSA 170413
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- WARMER AND VERY BREEZY WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF STORMS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
- A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A SINGLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE STORM IS APPROACHING OSAGE COUNTY
IN NORTHEAST OK THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT IT WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT CONTINUES FOR NOW NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. OTHERWISE, QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS
IN THE AFTERNOON OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA, STRONGEST IN THE
NORTH. THIS IS JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME QUITE WARM, RISING TO THE LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS INTO
THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 105 F OR SO FOR SOME
LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BUT HELD OFF ON A HEAT
ADVISORY AS THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES
A BIT LOWER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OK-KS AND AR-MO
BORDERS NEAR THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THAT SAID, A FEW STORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE THEY DECAY. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE A MARGINAL (5% CHANCE)
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. MAINTAINED LOW END 10-30% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL REVERSE TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SPILLING IN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, GENERALLY ALONG
THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONT NEAR 850 HPA. MOST CAM GUIDANCE
IS NOT OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC, WITH PRECIPITATION INTENSITY MOSTLY
ON THE LOWER END, BUT WITH SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD FOCUS PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST OK ON FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH CAMS ARE CURRENTLY DOWNPLAYING THE POTENTIAL, THERE WILL
STILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT AS WELL FOR ORGANIZED AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE, THIS POINTS TOWARDS HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD TYPE. THIS SAME HAZARD TYPE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY, THOUGH IT GENERALLY LOOKS LESS CONDUCIVE
OVERALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
NORTH ON THESE DAYS, WITH THE COOLER WEATHER REACHING SOUTHEAST OK
BY FRIDAY.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WITH SHORT BREAKS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK WARM WITH RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE SATURDAY, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE KICKING OFF SCATTERED STORMS. ASSUMING STORMS DEVELOP, THE
PWAT WILL BE QUITE HIGH, SO HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WOULD BE A
CONCERN. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, KICKING OFF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER RISK
OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS ARE: 1) LOW CHANCES
FOR STORM ACTIVITY IN AND AROUND KBVO THIS EVENING AND 2)
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS E OK AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE ECHOES ON RADAR INDICATING STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE KS BORDER. INSERTED PROB30 AT KBVO TO COVER THROUGH ABOUT
04Z. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUD CIGS SPREADING NORTH FROM TX TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO SUGGESTION THAT CIGS WILL BUTT
UP AGAINST THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK AND NOT GO ANY FURTHER NORTH.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AT THIS TIME, INSERTED SCATTERED LOW
CLOUD MENTION IN PREVAILING GROUPS AT KMLC, KTUL, KRVS, AND KFSM.
THE 06Z FORECAST SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA IF MVFR CIGS WILL
BECOME AN ISSUE. KEPT LLWS MENTION AT THE NE OK SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EVERYWHERE AFT 13Z OR
14Z.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 93 75 81 / 10 0 10 50
FSM 72 93 75 91 / 0 0 0 20
MLC 74 92 77 91 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 72 93 71 78 / 20 0 20 70
FYV 69 89 73 85 / 0 0 20 50
BYV 68 88 71 82 / 10 0 30 60
MKO 72 91 75 86 / 0 0 0 50
MIO 71 90 70 79 / 40 0 40 70
F10 72 91 74 86 / 0 0 10 50
HHW 72 90 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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