435
FXUS64 KTSA 180444
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT AND HUMIDITY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SE OK
THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 IN SOME SPOTS.
- A RELATIVELY COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK
AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST DURING PORTIONS
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS
FORCING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY. THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO NE OK OVERNIGHT
AND THEN CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE HRRR, RRFS AND GFS DEVELOP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT ALONG
THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION, WITH THE HRRR AND GFS DEVELOPING
ACTIVITY ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR STARTING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KS, WHILE THE RRFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE COVERAGE OVER OUR AREA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL
THREAT. THE 00Z HRRR HAS ALL STORMS ACROSS NE OK/NW AR DYING OFF
AFTER 15Z, AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTS THE SOUTHERN KS ELEVATED STORM
BAND SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE RRFS SHIFTS THE BAND DOWN
INTO OUR AREA FASTER. ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT STORM COVERAGE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED, LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES, THOUGH ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, BUT
WEAKER SHEAR.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY FAR SE OK NEAR THE RED RIVER,
HAVE FORECAST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES NEAR 105. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE QUITE THE NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NE OK WHERE CLOUDS AND PERIODIC RAIN HOLD TEMPS BACK BEHIND THE
FRONT.
LACY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING, AND ALL MODELS SUGGEST A PRETTY UNSETTLED NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK THAT NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING
STORMS IS HIGHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME, INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. WHAT HAPPENS AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME DATA HAS AN MCS ORGANIZING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EITHER TRACKING ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER REGION INTO
FRIDAY. THE LATEST HRRR TRACKS THIS MCS EAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY, WHILE THE GFS TAKES MORE IT INTO TX. THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. WHILE
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD, YOU CAN EXPECT
SOME RAIN/STORM CHANCES. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS COULD PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA (NE OK/NW AR). A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDOW
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A HIGHER THREAT.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT IN SOUTHERN KS WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY KBVO THIS EVENING
BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO REDEVELOP 08-10Z THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND FRONTAL LIFT CONTINUES.
CLOUDS MAY LIFT BRIEFLY TO VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-12 KT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 80 68 85 / 20 60 40 20
FSM 76 92 72 86 / 0 20 50 40
MLC 77 93 72 87 / 0 20 70 50
BVO 71 74 64 84 / 60 70 30 10
FYV 73 83 66 85 / 10 50 50 20
BYV 71 79 64 83 / 30 70 40 10
MKO 75 84 69 84 / 0 30 50 30
MIO 70 77 64 85 / 70 70 30 0
F10 75 85 68 85 / 0 30 50 40
HHW 75 92 75 86 / 0 0 70 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24
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