504
FXUS64 KTSA 181128
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT AND HUMIDITY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SE OK
THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 IN SOME SPOTS.
- A RELATIVELY COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK
AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST DURING PORTIONS
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS
FORCING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY. THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO NE OK OVERNIGHT
AND THEN CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE HRRR, RRFS AND GFS DEVELOP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT ALONG
THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION, WITH THE HRRR AND GFS DEVELOPING
ACTIVITY ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR STARTING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KS, WHILE THE RRFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE COVERAGE OVER OUR AREA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL
THREAT. THE 00Z HRRR HAS ALL STORMS ACROSS NE OK/NW AR DYING OFF
AFTER 15Z, AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTS THE SOUTHERN KS ELEVATED STORM
BAND SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE RRFS SHIFTS THE BAND DOWN
INTO OUR AREA FASTER. ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT STORM COVERAGE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED, LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES, THOUGH ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, BUT
WEAKER SHEAR.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY FAR SE OK NEAR THE RED RIVER,
HAVE FORECAST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES NEAR 105. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE QUITE THE NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NE OK WHERE CLOUDS AND PERIODIC RAIN HOLD TEMPS BACK BEHIND THE
FRONT.
LACY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING, AND ALL MODELS SUGGEST A PRETTY UNSETTLED NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK THAT NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING
STORMS IS HIGHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME, INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. WHAT HAPPENS AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME DATA HAS AN MCS ORGANIZING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EITHER TRACKING ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER REGION INTO
FRIDAY. THE LATEST HRRR TRACKS THIS MCS EAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY, WHILE THE GFS TAKES MORE IT INTO TX. THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. WHILE
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD, YOU CAN EXPECT
SOME RAIN/STORM CHANCES. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS COULD PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA (NE OK/NW AR). A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDOW
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A HIGHER THREAT.
LACY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KMLC AND KFSM. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES, BUT THE
BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 68 85 71 / 60 40 20 40
FSM 92 72 86 72 / 20 50 40 40
MLC 93 72 87 73 / 20 70 50 60
BVO 74 64 84 68 / 70 30 10 50
FYV 83 66 85 69 / 50 50 20 30
BYV 79 64 83 66 / 70 40 10 30
MKO 84 69 84 71 / 30 50 30 40
MIO 77 64 85 68 / 70 30 0 40
F10 85 68 85 71 / 30 50 40 50
HHW 92 75 86 72 / 0 70 60 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page