226
FXUS64 KTSA 190430
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER
ARK RIVER VALLEY OF WEST-CENTRAL AR ACROSS SE OK TOWARD THE RED
RIVER NEAR WICHITA FALLS AND THEN SOUTH FROM THERE TOWARD A THERMAL
LOW OVER WEST TX. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SETTLING
SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT. A PERSISTENT BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS EXISTING ALONG A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND THAT
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UNDERLYING FORCING FADES. THAT SAID,
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NE OK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY NE OK INTO NW AR, AS THAT LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER OUR AREA. A LIMITED SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS. THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE OUT WEST, OVER THE SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX PORTION
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND MULTIPLE CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
SIGNAL OF MANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT,
EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN EASTWARD-TRACKING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IF THIS DOES INDEED
OCCUR, THERE WOULD BE A LIMITED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-40 AND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER.
THE GFS AND CAMS TAKE THE MCS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MIDDAY AND
HAVE A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LACY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MODELS FORECAST A QUIET NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS.
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.
AFTER A RELATIVELY TAME DAY SATURDAY, THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (NE OK/NW
AR). WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND DURING THIS TIME FRAME TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON ITS OUTFLOW
LIKELY DRAPED SOMEWHERE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON
EFFECTS OF OUTFLOW, IF ANY, SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THE SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDOW WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
HIGHER THREAT. THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY MAY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
TUESDAY FOR A QUIETER WEATHER DAY BY THEN BUT WE SHALL SEE. SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NW AR SITES THIS
EVENING, WITH A BREAK IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A STORM COMPLEX IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT
OF TEXAS AND INTO SE OK FRIDAY MORNING. THUS, PERIODS OF PROB30S
AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR REDUCED VSBY AND CIG ARE NOTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. BETTER STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SE OK INTO WC AR. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS COULD ALSO FEED INTO SE OK AND WC AR THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, WHILE OTHER REDUCTION WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO CONVECTION.
STORMS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THE AREA BY AFTERNOON WITH BREAKING
CLOUDS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 67 84 70 87 / 30 20 10 20
FSM 71 83 70 89 / 40 50 10 30
MLC 69 82 71 87 / 60 60 20 30
BVO 62 84 67 86 / 40 10 10 20
FYV 65 85 67 85 / 60 30 10 30
BYV 64 82 64 85 / 40 30 0 30
MKO 68 82 69 86 / 40 40 10 20
MIO 63 83 67 86 / 30 0 10 20
F10 67 81 69 86 / 40 50 10 30
HHW 72 80 70 86 / 50 70 30 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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