811
FXUS64 KTSA 191134
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER
ARK RIVER VALLEY OF WEST-CENTRAL AR ACROSS SE OK TOWARD THE RED
RIVER NEAR WICHITA FALLS AND THEN SOUTH FROM THERE TOWARD A THERMAL
LOW OVER WEST TX. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SETTLING
SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT. A PERSISTENT BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS EXISTING ALONG A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND THAT
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UNDERLYING FORCING FADES. THAT SAID,
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NE OK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY NE OK INTO NW AR, AS THAT LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER OUR AREA. A LIMITED SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS. THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE OUT WEST, OVER THE SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX PORTION
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND MULTIPLE CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
SIGNAL OF MANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT,
EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN EASTWARD-TRACKING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IF THIS DOES INDEED
OCCUR, THERE WOULD BE A LIMITED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-40 AND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER.
THE GFS AND CAMS TAKE THE MCS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MIDDAY AND
HAVE A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LACY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MODELS FORECAST A QUIET NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS.
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.
AFTER A RELATIVELY TAME DAY SATURDAY, THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (NE OK/NW
AR). WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND DURING THIS TIME FRAME TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON ITS OUTFLOW
LIKELY DRAPED SOMEWHERE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON
EFFECTS OF OUTFLOW, IF ANY, SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THE SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDOW WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
HIGHER THREAT. THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY MAY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
TUESDAY FOR A QUIETER WEATHER DAY BY THEN BUT WE SHALL SEE. SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LACY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR THIS MORNING, AND AN MCS IS MOVING
EAST ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX. ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR
COULD IMPACTS THOSE SITES THROUGH 15Z WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY.
MEANWHILE, THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN OK SHOULD MOVE INTO MLC 14-15Z AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS FSM LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY. IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE CONVECTION, BUT CIGS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE VFR CATEGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING. SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
GUIDANCE OF SOME FOG DEVELOPING IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH, AND INCLUDED
THIS AT FYV AFTER 20/06Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 84 70 87 75 / 20 10 20 30
FSM 83 70 89 74 / 50 10 30 30
MLC 82 71 87 75 / 60 20 30 10
BVO 84 67 86 73 / 10 10 20 50
FYV 85 67 85 71 / 30 10 30 30
BYV 82 64 85 70 / 30 0 30 30
MKO 82 69 86 74 / 40 10 20 20
MIO 83 67 86 72 / 0 10 20 50
F10 81 69 86 74 / 50 10 30 10
HHW 80 70 86 74 / 70 30 30 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...69
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