105
FXUS64 KTSA 201127
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST SUNDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SUNDAY AND PERSIST POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
OVER FAR SE OK NEAR THE RED RIVER, AN MCV LEFT OVER FROM STORM
ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE DAY IS SPINNING OVER THE AREA AND MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. SHOWER COVERAGE HAS INCREASED RECENTLY ON ITS NORTHERN
SIDE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY TO ITS SOUTH
IN NE TX TONIGHT. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT SOME POPS WERE KEPT OVER THIS AREA FOR THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE OLD BOUNDARY OVER TX WILL LIFT/REDEVELOP NORTH
ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CO IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE MORE ISOLATED DIURNAL ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO FAR EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS NE OK AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
NEAR THE DEWPOINT BY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK.
A WARMING TREND GETS GOING SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LACY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FARTHER EAST, WITH ONE OR MORE MCSS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS KS SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL, THE GUIDANCE
TODAY HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BIGGER IMPACTS, BUT CHANCES
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO GRAZE NE OK AND NW AR ARE PRETTY
GOOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST OK AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER KS.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. FORECAST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR
OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 75 AND IN THE LOWER
ARK RIVER VALLEY AND AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTH DROPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE STATE BORDERS AND FOCUSES STORMS THAT
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
EVENING, AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY AND DROP
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE THE HIGHEST SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR THIS FORECAST. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP
SOUTH OF I-40, WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. STORM CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND
ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY
COULD GET SHOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT THE BETTER STORM CHANCES
TUESDAY COULD BE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
IN AN ABOVE AVERAGE MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PWATS PUSHING 2 INCHES) WILL
RAISE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN/AMPLIFY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK, WITH NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE PLAINS.
WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING, THE PATTERN FAVORS THE
POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTTIME MCSS TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LACY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN SOME IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ERN OK SITES THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY
MID MORNING, WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR THEREAFTER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE SERN OK AND WRN AR BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WRN
KS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TOWARD NERN OK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
AFFECT BVO LATE IN THE PERIOD, SO INCLUDED PROB30 THERE AFTER 21/09Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 88 75 94 71 / 10 10 20 90
FSM 90 73 93 75 / 10 10 10 90
MLC 89 75 92 76 / 20 10 10 80
BVO 87 73 93 67 / 10 20 40 80
FYV 86 71 88 70 / 20 20 30 90
BYV 86 71 87 69 / 30 20 30 90
MKO 87 74 91 72 / 10 10 10 90
MIO 87 73 90 67 / 20 20 60 90
F10 87 74 92 72 / 10 10 10 80
HHW 86 74 90 76 / 20 20 10 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...69
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