502
FXUS64 KTSA 210539
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1239 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY/TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
IMAGERY FROM GOES-19 SHOWS A WELL DEFINED, SOUTHEASTWARD-
ADVANCING MCS BEGINNING TO PUSH IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT, HELPING PROPAGATE THE MCS TO MORE OF A WEST-TO-EAST
MOTION. WITH THAT SAID, MUCH OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED TO STAY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA, THROUGH A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN-
TIER OK COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. HEALTHY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
CROSS THE OK/KS BORDER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, THOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE MCS SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND/OR EXITING THE
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSED BY THE MCS, WHERE CONVECTION CAN RE-
INITIATE AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS GOING. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FORMING OFF OF
A THETA-E GRADIENT THAT WILL SETUP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO
NORTHWEST AR. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.
OVERALL, SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, HOT, HUMID, AND VERY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS KS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME, IN ADDITION TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK. AS A RESULT, BREEZY AND GUST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THROUGH THE
DAY. THE STRONG WINDS AND COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DRAW
UP MOISTURE AND HEAT TEMPERATURES UP, CAUSING SOME DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY, WITH VALUES AS HIGH AS 108 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL
AR BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM SUNDAY.
THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA, OR
NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER, AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STORMS WILL FIRE OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST KS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
STORMS PUSHING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS OR
NORTHEAST OK FROM THIS ACTIVITY, WITH MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST, GENERALLY FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE MCS PUSHES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST
AR. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW QUESTIONS REGARDING COVERAGE AND
EXACT INTENSITY OF THE STORMS, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE STORM COMPLEX, WITH MOSTLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH STORMS. HOWEVER, A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR LARGE AND/OR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A LIMITED RISK FOR A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST EARLY TO MID EVENING, INITIALLY WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT, BEFORE STORMS CLUSTER AND THE MCS FULLY
DEVELOPS. ON TOP OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THE MCS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE COMMON, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE,
UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIEST STORMS AND WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. MINOR
FLOODING IS LIKELY, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY THE NEXT FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR, THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
IF QPF GUIDANCE TRENDS HIGHER.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE ONGOING STORMS MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT, BUT INSTABILITY, SHEAR,
AND LIFT WILL ALL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR STRONG AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING AND PERHAPS EARLY ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THINGS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES WORKED OVER. BY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING, AND SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MONDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK, PERHAPS EVEN INTO LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR STORMS REMAINING IN PLACE,
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DAILY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS OUT IN THE AREA, THOUGH CHANCES AND
COVERAGE MAY DIFFER SLIGHTLY EACH DAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS ERN OK AND NWRN AR AHEAD OF
SEVERE MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THIS CONVECTION HAS
TURNED MORE EAST PAST HOUR OR SO, AND MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS IT NORTH
OF THE OK/KS BORDER AS IT HEADS TOWARD MO OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED
PROB30 GROUP FOR BVO FOR A FEW HOURS INTO MID MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MORNING, MOST LIKELY ACROSS WRN AR SITES.
ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN
KS THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, CARRIED PROB30
GROUPS NERN OK AND NWRN AR SITES 22/01-06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FROM MID MORNING UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 93 71 82 68 / 20 60 30 80
FSM 93 75 88 72 / 10 70 60 80
MLC 92 76 88 72 / 0 60 60 90
BVO 93 66 80 65 / 30 60 20 70
FYV 89 71 83 68 / 10 80 50 80
BYV 88 69 81 65 / 20 90 60 70
MKO 91 72 84 69 / 10 70 50 80
MIO 90 67 80 65 / 30 90 20 60
F10 91 72 84 69 / 10 70 50 80
HHW 91 76 89 74 / 10 40 60 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ055-056-059>061-064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-
354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...69
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