746
FXUS64 KTSA 221120
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING
AN ELEVATED SEVERE RISK AS WELL AS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAT
COULD LEAD TO QUICKLY DEVELOPING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS UPCOMING WORK
WEEK, RETURNING ABOVE AVERAGE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CWA, DRAPED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND CLUSTER BOTH ALONG THE OF
BOUNDARY AND OUT AHEAD OF IT. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A POTENT MCS RIDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTH AND EASTWARD. STRONGEST CORES EMBEDDED IN THE MCS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH, SMALL (AND
OCCASIONALLY LARGE) HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO STAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OVERALL SEVERE
INTENSITY AND THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME AS THE STORMS
PUSH SOUTH OF I-40 AND INTO WESTERN AR OVERNIGHT, BUT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL NOT COMPLETELY GO AWAY UNTIL THE MCS PUSHES SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME MID MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.
IN GENERAL, MOST AREAS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE 1 TO 3
INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. LATEST SUITE OF HI-RES MODELS SHOW
VERY IMPRESSIVE ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 5 TO 6 INCHES
BY NOON. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR FAR
EASTERN OK AND ALL OF NORTHWEST AR. THESE HIGHER- END AMOUNTS
SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH PWATS, CURRENT/RECENT RAINFALL RATES,
AND CONSISTENCY IN HI-RES MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN NOTABLE,
BUT SLIGHT SOUTH SHIFT IN QPF IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS. REGARDLESS, AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH HAVE SEEN
AND RECEIVED A SURPLUS OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS,
SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR FLOODING AND/OR FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCE BEFORE IT STALLS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING BETWEEN I-40 AND THE RED
RIVER BY NOON, WHILE THE 00Z HRRR HAS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA AT THE SAME TIME. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE SOLUTION THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL/OSCILLATE JUST NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES,
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OFF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND IS ANTICIPATED TO HELP FORM ANOTHER MCS
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STILL NUMEROUS QUESTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL MCS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING, COVERAGE, AND
INTENSITY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40 WOULD
BE IMPACTED THE MOST IF VERIFIED, HAVING THE BEST OVERALL SEVERE
AND FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-
MID 80S, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40. MEANWHILE, NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE RED RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS VERY SIMILAR AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH NORTHWEST/WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLOWING THROUGH. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING, BECOMING
MUCH LESS DEFINED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT OFF THE ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH MAY
GENERATE AND PUSH ANOTHER MCS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES.
AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE UPCOMING WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE MUCH MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE, ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHEN CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 70 85 73 / 30 40 50 70
FSM 87 72 86 73 / 60 60 60 40
MLC 87 73 88 75 / 70 60 60 40
BVO 80 65 84 70 / 20 30 40 70
FYV 83 68 83 70 / 50 50 50 50
BYV 80 65 81 68 / 40 20 50 60
MKO 83 70 84 72 / 50 60 70 60
MIO 80 66 84 70 / 20 20 50 70
F10 84 70 85 72 / 60 60 60 50
HHW 88 73 88 75 / 80 60 40 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ057-058-062-063-
068-069-172-176-272-276-376.
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120-129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05
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