442
FXUS64 KTSA 221644
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
- THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR STORM ACTIVITY IS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS UPCOMING WORK
WEEK, RETURNING ABOVE AVERAGE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MORNINGS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 (CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY). THIS INCREASE IN POPS WILL
BE DRIVEN BY ANOTHER SUBTLE PASSING WAVE WHICH WILL KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS WHERE USABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THERE IS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT (5%
CHANCE). LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE, AND AS SUCH,
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE LOW 70S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTOPPING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE, SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE. MEANWHILE, FREQUENT TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
THROUGH, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN, AND ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR, IS NOTORIOUS FOR
BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES, BUT THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID,
CAM GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS ALREADY ZEROING IN ON THE WIND
AND RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ASSUMING A
WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STORMS OCCURS, CAMS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND
GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS WOULD BE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, AND
MOSTLY IF NOT COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN THE STORM CYCLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. CONSIDERING ALL OF THE RAIN THAT
WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED, AND WITH MORE ON THE WAY, IT IS LIKELY
THE HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHEN CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 69 85 71 / 20 20 20 70
FSM 87 72 86 72 / 70 40 40 50
MLC 86 71 88 74 / 50 50 40 40
BVO 78 64 84 69 / 20 10 20 70
FYV 82 67 83 68 / 70 20 20 60
BYV 79 64 80 67 / 70 10 20 60
MKO 82 69 84 70 / 50 30 30 60
MIO 78 65 84 68 / 20 10 10 70
F10 83 69 85 71 / 50 50 30 50
HHW 87 72 88 73 / 80 70 30 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05
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