867
FXUS64 KTSA 070436
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- ISOLATED STORMS TUES - WED PRIMARILY SE OK AND NW AR
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THEN RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH HELPED FOSTER THE STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION.
COVERAGE OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED FROM SE OK THROUGH NW AR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING AS RIDGING ALOFT
GRADUALLY EXPANDS EASTWARD. THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVELS VEER SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONGER WAVE TO OUR NORTH. THIS WAVE MAY USHER A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A
MORE PROBABLE OUTCOME IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO FAVOR NEARER SEASONAL NORMALS
WITHIN THIS PATTERN. A MORE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD FAVOR A DRIER AND HOTTER
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AT THE E OK
SITES WITH SCATTERED CU DURING THE DAY TIME. AT KFSM, STORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND HAVE GUSTY WINDS
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AT
KFYV, KXNA AND KROG, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH STORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE IS HITTING
FOG POTENTIAL AT THESE SITES TOWARD MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KFYV.
THIS SITE PICKED UP SOME RAIN FROM AN AFTERNOON STORM AS WELL, SO
WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS THERE. AT THE OTHER SITES,
WILL USE PREVAILING MVFR FOG MENTION. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON CU.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 92 72 96 / 20 10 0 10
FSM 72 94 74 96 / 20 20 10 20
MLC 70 94 72 96 / 20 20 10 20
BVO 66 91 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 66 89 68 92 / 10 20 10 20
BYV 66 88 67 91 / 10 20 10 20
MKO 70 91 71 94 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 68 90 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
F10 69 91 70 95 / 20 10 0 10
HHW 71 92 72 94 / 20 20 10 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
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