118
FXUS64 KTSA 070940
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
440 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 439 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- ISOLATED STORMS TUES - WED PRIMARILY SE OK AND NW AR
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THEN RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH HELPED FOSTER THE STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION.
COVERAGE OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED FROM SE OK THROUGH NW AR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING AS RIDGING ALOFT
GRADUALLY EXPANDS EASTWARD. THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVELS VEER SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONGER WAVE TO OUR NORTH. THIS WAVE MAY USHER A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A
MORE PROBABLE OUTCOME IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO FAVOR NEARER SEASONAL NORMALS
WITHIN THIS PATTERN. A MORE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD FAVOR A DRIER AND HOTTER
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
CLOUDS IN THE 4-5 KFT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
FORM NEAR KFSM AND KMLC BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME (10-20% CHANCE). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM NE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO ESE DURING THE
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 92 72 96 78 / 10 0 10 0
FSM 94 74 96 76 / 20 10 20 0
MLC 94 72 96 78 / 20 10 20 0
BVO 91 68 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 89 68 92 73 / 20 10 20 0
BYV 88 67 91 72 / 20 10 20 0
MKO 91 71 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 90 69 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
F10 91 70 95 76 / 10 0 10 0
HHW 92 72 94 76 / 20 10 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06
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