554
FXUS64 KTSA 072312
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN
SE OK AND NW AR.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY, THEN RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW-MID 100S
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THE ARKANSAS RIVER NEAR MUSKOGEE REMAINS IN ACTION STAGE BUT
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW LINGERING OVER ARKANSAS.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND FOCUSED MORE
ACROSS SE OK AND INTO NW AR. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS TODAY. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE/UPPER TROUGH AXIS, BUT MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 70.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CAMS SUGGEST AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PRECIP NEAR THE
RED RIVER AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE MOST FOCUS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK AND W-CENTRAL
AR. WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY E OK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS INTO
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE C PLAINS. THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA MUCH, THOUGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY WARM SLIGHTLY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW POINT TRENDS TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS HEAT INDICES MAY ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY-CRITERIA...MAINLY FOR THE TYPICAL PARTS OF NE OK AND THE
AR RIVER VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS AND FORCES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO OR NEAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OCCUR AS A
RESULT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 412. THE FRONT WILL TEND TO
REMAIN NEARBY IN SOME FORM AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND.
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BECOME DISPLACED TO THE WEST WITH WEAK
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE S PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING RE-INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SLIDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY. HEIGHTS GENERALLY INCREASE OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM IN OR AROUND THE KFSM
TERMINAL IN THE NEAR TERM, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME MORNING MID CLOUD ACROSS EASTERN OK AND AFTERNOON
CU AT ALL SITES. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT
KFYV. THERE WAS DENSE FOG THERE LAST NIGHT BUT THAT WAS ALSO
FOLLOWING RAIN. GUIDANCE IS A LOT LESS BULLISH WITH THE FOG
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, BUT TO HEDGE THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPO
LIGHT MVFR FOG WILL BE KEPT.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 96 78 98 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 73 96 76 98 / 10 20 10 0
MLC 72 96 77 97 / 10 20 10 0
BVO 68 94 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 68 92 72 94 / 10 20 10 0
BYV 67 91 73 94 / 10 20 10 0
MKO 71 94 76 97 / 10 20 10 0
MIO 68 93 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
F10 70 95 76 96 / 10 20 10 0
HHW 72 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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