400
FXUS64 KTSA 080442
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY WITH
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
- HEAT BUILDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH FAR SE OK
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL
TREND HIGHER FOR MOST LOCALS BY AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 TO 105 WILL BE COMMON. A BRIEF WINDOW OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN BOTH EXTENT AND
DURATION AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINS LOW BUT WILL INCLUDE MENTIONABLE PRECIP
CHANCES TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF DOWNBURST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET RESPONDING WITH A CORRIDOR OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO NE OK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO MIX EASTWARD SHOULD RESULT IN THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON STORM POTENTIAL
THURSDAY VARIES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT A LOW CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN LOCATIONS APPEARS WARRANTED. THIS CORRIDOR WILL ALSO BE
NEARER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW SO AN UPTICK IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
COULD DEVELOP PENDING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO CARRIES UNCERTAINTIES
TYPICAL WITH MCS EVOLUTION, BUT THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE AND
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SHOWN FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND GENERALLY FAVORS BUILDING
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH THEN BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE LOCAL
REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWS FOR
DAILY PRECIP CHANCES WITH TEMPS NEAR TO POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM IN OR AROUND THE KFSM
TERMINAL IN THE NEAR TERM, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME MORNING MID CLOUD ACROSS EASTERN OK AND AFTERNOON
CU AT ALL SITES. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT
KFYV. THERE WAS DENSE FOG THERE LAST NIGHT BUT THAT WAS ALSO
FOLLOWING RAIN. GUIDANCE IS A LOT LESS BULLISH WITH THE FOG
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, BUT TO HEDGE THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPO
LIGHT MVFR FOG WILL BE KEPT.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 97 78 99 / 0 20 10 20
FSM 73 96 76 98 / 0 20 10 20
MLC 72 96 78 98 / 20 20 10 10
BVO 68 95 76 97 / 0 0 20 20
FYV 68 92 74 94 / 0 20 10 20
BYV 67 91 72 94 / 10 20 0 20
MKO 71 95 77 97 / 0 20 0 20
MIO 68 93 74 95 / 0 0 10 20
F10 70 96 76 97 / 0 20 0 20
HHW 72 94 76 96 / 20 20 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
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