969
FXUS64 KTSA 080532
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY WITH
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
- HEAT BUILDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH FAR SE OK
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL
TREND HIGHER FOR MOST LOCALS BY AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 TO 105 WILL BE COMMON. A BRIEF WINDOW OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN BOTH EXTENT AND
DURATION AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINS LOW BUT WILL INCLUDE MENTIONABLE PRECIP
CHANCES TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF DOWNBURST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET RESPONDING WITH A CORRIDOR OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO NE OK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO MIX EASTWARD SHOULD RESULT IN THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON STORM POTENTIAL
THURSDAY VARIES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT A LOW CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN LOCATIONS APPEARS WARRANTED. THIS CORRIDOR WILL ALSO BE
NEARER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW SO AN UPTICK IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
COULD DEVELOP PENDING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO CARRIES UNCERTAINTIES
TYPICAL WITH MCS EVOLUTION, BUT THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE AND
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SHOWN FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND GENERALLY FAVORS BUILDING
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH THEN BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE LOCAL
REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWS FOR
DAILY PRECIP CHANCES WITH TEMPS NEAR TO POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
FEW TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL ZONE MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR KFYV.
THUS, WILL CONTINUE A TEMPO GROUP FOR TIMING OF GREATER
POTENTIAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO LIMITED ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
AND IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL, WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AT THIS TIME.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AS MID CLOUDS DISSIPATE, HIGH CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD START OUT VARIABLE AND BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 97 78 99 80 / 20 10 20 20
FSM 96 76 98 79 / 20 10 20 0
MLC 96 78 98 80 / 20 10 10 0
BVO 95 76 97 77 / 0 20 20 20
FYV 92 74 94 76 / 20 10 20 10
BYV 91 72 94 76 / 20 0 20 10
MKO 95 77 97 79 / 20 0 20 0
MIO 93 74 95 77 / 0 10 20 20
F10 96 76 97 78 / 20 0 20 0
HHW 94 76 96 77 / 20 0 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
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