337
FXUS64 KTSA 090449
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH LARGE AREA OF HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THE INCREASE IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
LOW LEVEL JET HAS INTENSIFIED WITH EARLY SIGNS OF HIGH BASED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE OK / KS BORDER REGION. THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE EARLY DAY
CLOUD COVER AND/OUT OUTFLOW MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THE DAILY WARM
UP, THE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FAVORS TEMPS STILL REACHING THE WARMEST LEVELS OF
THE WEEK AREA WIDE BY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE VASTLY
UNDER FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY, AND WHILE THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME
LOWER ON THURSDAY, THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER VALUE
SCENARIOS WITH THE RESULTANT HEAT INDEX VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF A
BROAD REGION HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE RISK PRIMARILY DUE TO
DOWNBURST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
CONVECTION MAY AGAIN EXPAND NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE
STORMS WOULD SPREAD INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. FORECASTS WILL RETAIN LOW
CHANCES GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION,
HOWEVER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES AND WAVES PASSING ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL AID
IN EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN ACT AS A FAVORED
CORRIDOR FOR DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT RE-CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ITS INFLUENCE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. LOWER DAILY
RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS
WRN AR, BUT PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING ANY SITE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LLWS ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGH-BASED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT AGAIN PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS AT ANY ONE TERMINAL TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMES GUSTY MID
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 98 79 97 / 20 20 20 20
FSM 77 98 78 98 / 10 10 10 20
MLC 79 97 80 96 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 75 97 76 95 / 30 30 20 20
FYV 72 93 76 93 / 10 20 20 20
BYV 73 94 75 91 / 10 20 20 20
MKO 78 96 78 96 / 10 20 20 20
MIO 75 93 76 93 / 20 30 30 20
F10 77 97 79 97 / 10 20 10 10
HHW 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ119-120-129-
219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...69
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