552
FXUS64 KTSA 091134
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH LARGE AREA OF HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THE INCREASE IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
LOW LEVEL JET HAS INTENSIFIED WITH EARLY SIGNS OF HIGH BASED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE OK / KS BORDER REGION. THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE EARLY DAY
CLOUD COVER AND/OUT OUTFLOW MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THE DAILY WARM
UP, THE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FAVORS TEMPS STILL REACHING THE WARMEST LEVELS OF
THE WEEK AREA WIDE BY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE VASTLY
UNDER FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY, AND WHILE THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME
LOWER ON THURSDAY, THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER VALUE
SCENARIOS WITH THE RESULTANT HEAT INDEX VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF A
BROAD REGION HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE RISK PRIMARILY DUE TO
DOWNBURST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
CONVECTION MAY AGAIN EXPAND NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE
STORMS WOULD SPREAD INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. FORECASTS WILL RETAIN LOW
CHANCES GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION,
HOWEVER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES AND WAVES PASSING ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL AID
IN EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN ACT AS A FAVORED
CORRIDOR FOR DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT RE-CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ITS INFLUENCE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. LOWER DAILY
RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS EXISTS DURING THE
DAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOW THUNDER POTENTIAL MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH UNCERTAINTY OF
COVERAGE AND IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TAFS DRY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND LOOK
TO BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 98 79 97 78 / 20 20 20 30
FSM 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 20 10
MLC 97 80 96 79 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 97 76 95 74 / 30 20 20 40
FYV 93 76 93 75 / 20 20 20 30
BYV 94 75 91 73 / 20 20 20 40
MKO 96 78 96 78 / 20 20 20 20
MIO 93 76 93 74 / 30 30 20 50
F10 97 79 97 78 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 97 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ049-053-055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-
354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ119-120-129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
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