954
FXUS64 KTSA 091700
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH LARGE AREA OF HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THE INCREASE IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE AND PUSH EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE, LARGELY NORTH OF I-40 AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON STILL TRENDS TO BE A HOT ONE, THOUGH THE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER HAVE SLOWED THE WARM UP
SLIGHTLY. MORE VEERED SURFACE FLOW FORM THE SOUTHWEST AND
FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A
LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, BUT STILL HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE TEMPERATURES TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR SOME LOCATIONS
IF NEEDED. MORE WIND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S TONIGHT.
BOWLAN
PUSHING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND OUT OF THE LOCAL REGION.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS LOOKS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN, SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MORE HEAT
HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED FROM LATER SHIFTS. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY,
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-40, WITH SOME SEVERE RISK PRESENT. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE FAVORED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOWER
STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MORE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
BOUNDARY.
BY THIS TIME, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. INFLUENCE
FORM THE RIDGE LOOKS TO SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH LOWER DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THE RESULT IN THE FORECAST THOUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE THAT MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN AT THE NE
OK AND FAR NW AR TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT IMPACTS TO
AVIATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LLWS IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL
BE LOW AT ANY ONE SITE AND ANY MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW. AN MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
REACHING THE NE OK TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 98 80 96 / 20 20 20 50
FSM 81 98 79 96 / 10 20 10 30
MLC 81 96 80 96 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 78 96 76 94 / 20 20 30 40
FYV 79 93 77 91 / 20 20 30 60
BYV 78 93 75 90 / 20 20 40 70
MKO 80 97 79 94 / 20 20 20 50
MIO 77 94 75 91 / 20 20 40 50
F10 80 97 79 95 / 10 10 10 30
HHW 78 96 77 94 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-055>068-
070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ119-120-129-219-
220-229.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22
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