742
FXUS64 KTSA 100522
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH LARGE AREA OF
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THE INCREASE IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WERE ONGOING ACROSS W KS/OK LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH
OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND/OR WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES OUR AREA, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 412 THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS SE KS AND NE OK WHICH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL CAMS SUPPORT THIS IDEA
WITH HREF NPS FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR FOR
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY,
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REMAINING DRY. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLE IN WHO SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS HEAT FRIDAY. OVERALL,
THE AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY BE THE EXCEPTION GIVEN
RELATIVELY HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE/PRECIP POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
(COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS), EVEN AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE RECENT
DRY BIAS. THUS, SLIGHTLY DRIER VALUES WERE INCORPORATED INTO THE
FORECAST, BUT OTHERWISE LEANED TOWARDS PERSISTENCE. THIS STILL
PROVIDES MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUS, A HEAT
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF E OK AND THE AR RIVER VALLEY
BETWEEN 1 AND 8 PM. ADDITIONAL FORECAST ZONES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN NE OK PENDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT, A TRAILING WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
PUSHES A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT. PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT DURING THIS TIME, AND LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL EXPANSION SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED TO SE OK AND W AR. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FROM MID WEEK ONWARD AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER...LIKELY BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
(UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S). HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD,
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN WITH DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLY
RETURNING BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF WIND
SHEAR ARE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES
REACHING THE SURFACE. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHEAST OK, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NEAR KBVO. ANY STORMS WOULD BRING GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 98 79 95 75 / 20 10 40 70
FSM 97 78 97 76 / 0 10 30 70
MLC 95 79 95 76 / 0 0 0 60
BVO 96 75 93 71 / 20 20 40 70
FYV 93 76 91 71 / 10 10 50 70
BYV 93 74 91 70 / 20 20 60 70
MKO 96 78 95 74 / 10 10 20 70
MIO 93 74 90 71 / 20 40 50 80
F10 96 78 95 74 / 10 10 20 70
HHW 96 77 94 76 / 0 0 0 40
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ049-053-060>062-066-067-070-071-073>075-176-272-276-
376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...06
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