214
FXUS64 KTSA 110223
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
923 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 922 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT,
GENERALLY ALONG THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH A LARGE AREA OF
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THE INCREASE IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK AND
SOUTHEASTERN KS THIS EVENING, BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL GET ITS ACT
TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, LIFTING WARM, MOIST,
UNSTABLE AIR UP OVER THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SRN KS. SOME
CAMS SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENTLY
SHOWING INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO FAR NERN OK AND NWRN AR OVERNIGHT. GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFT OVER NOT ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY BUT ALSO OVER ANY OUTFLOW THAT SURGES SOUTH FROM THE
SRN KS CONVECTION, WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION SOME LOW SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT NERN OK AND NWRN AR. ADJUSTED
QPF AND SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. REMAINDER OF ONGOING FORECAST
TRENDING WELL.
69
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE HEAT IS THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH 8 PM FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. DEW
POINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AND
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA, EXPECT THAT
OVERALL, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER
THAN THOSE YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PARTS OF OSAGE
COUNTY, WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG AA WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE TRENDS IN THAT AREA, BUT FOR NOW, THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE NBM POPS, WHICH WERE BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS, HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THIS
FEATURE. A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE FAVORED THREAT. THE BULK OF THESE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET, WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER NEARER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
HEAT REMAINS AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS FOR MUCH
OF SATURDAY, WITH A SHIFT TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREATS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT DAYBREAK
SATURDAY, A BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STRETCHED ACROSS AREAS NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS THIS BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR HIGHWAY 412 BY MIDDAY.
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND THE
NBM DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BY BLENDING IN DATA FROM THE 12Z
NAMNEST, WHICH DEPICTS THE EXPECTED SCENARIO QUITE WELL. ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO STALL.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE
EVENING AND SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME ALONG WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST
AS WELL. MOVING INTO SUNDAY, THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH.
FOR NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, LEAVING AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMAL AND A BREAK FROM THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES MORE TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD RESULT THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DAILY,
MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN THE NORM
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
LATEST MESOANALYSES AND CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
CONVECTION POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412 IN NERN OK THIS EVENING.
CARRIED VCTS AT BVO FOR A FEW HOURS TO ADDRESS THAT POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT NORTH INTO KS LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK BOUNDARY TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR IT
SATURDAY. PROB30 GROUPS WERE CARRIED THROUGH 12/00Z TUL/RVS/FYV/
ROG/XNA, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD MLC/FSM AFTER
THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS. GENERALLY, VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE TSRA. NERN OK AND
NWRN AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 96 75 92 / 10 30 70 20
FSM 77 98 75 93 / 10 10 60 50
MLC 78 97 76 94 / 10 0 50 50
BVO 73 94 71 90 / 20 20 50 10
FYV 75 92 70 88 / 10 30 70 50
BYV 78 92 70 86 / 20 30 60 50
MKO 78 96 74 91 / 10 20 60 30
MIO 73 92 70 88 / 20 20 50 20
F10 77 96 74 92 / 10 20 60 30
HHW 77 95 76 92 / 10 0 20 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ060-066-067-
070-071-073-074-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69
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