231
FXUS64 KTSA 111445
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 943 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY ALONG
THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH A LARGE AREA OF
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY TO REFLECT A
SLOWER/LATER TREND IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
INITIAL STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, WITH MOST DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
IS OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT FUELED BY AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AXIS NOSING INTO THE REGION. RELATIVELY
LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT AS
THE COLD POOL DEEPENS, THAT A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH OF
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS
COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATER TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD
SUNRISE. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE,
ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA, A FEW STORMS COULD STILL
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF THEY CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
OTHERWISE, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN OWING TO DEEP, MOIST PROFILES AND EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PROCESSES. STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
TRAINING POTENTIAL, ENHANCING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THOSE BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM THE MORNING STORMS, WHERE MORE
MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OTHER
LOCATIONS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LEAD TO MORE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF WESTERN ARKANSAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH FOCUS LIKELY SHIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
AT LEAST MODEST SHEAR WILL AID IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AGAIN, THOUGH INITIAL CELLS
COULD POSE A HAIL THREAT BEFORE MERGING INTO CLUSTERS. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AGAIN WITH SLOWER
STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION LIKELY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH ANY CONVECTION
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING
OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STICK
NEARER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS LEADING TO A REPRIEVE FROM THE ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT FOR
A FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY BUILDS IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND STRETCHED ACROSS MOST OF
THE COUNTRY, WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DWINDLING STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE HOWEVER, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WILL SEE SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-40 ALONG A BOUNDARY, WORKING
THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. THEY WILL ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR IN THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH CEILINGS COMING DOWN TO 3-5 KFT. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING NEAR DAWN WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 96 74 92 72 / 40 40 10 0
FSM 97 75 93 74 / 30 70 20 10
MLC 97 75 93 72 / 10 50 30 30
BVO 93 71 91 69 / 20 20 0 0
FYV 91 70 89 68 / 50 40 10 0
BYV 90 68 88 66 / 50 20 0 0
MKO 95 72 91 71 / 30 60 20 10
MIO 91 70 90 67 / 30 10 0 0
F10 95 72 90 70 / 20 60 20 10
HHW 94 75 91 72 / 0 30 40 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ060>062-066-067-070-071-073-074-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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