029
FXUS64 KTSA 112327
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH A LARGE AREA OF
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH AT
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KANSAS
BORDER EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. AS EXPECTED, DEW POINTS
HAVE INCREASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH VALUES MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE AND RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS
SAME TIME YESTERDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDEX VALUES REMAINS COVERED BY THE EXISTING ADVISORY AND NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN CREEK
AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES, WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO 105 BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, PRIMARILY EAST OF
I-49, DUE TO THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE TIMING
OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LATER THAN REFLECTED IN EARLIER FORECASTS,
WITH THE HIGHER POPS DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, ALTHOUGH WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THE THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE AREA, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE DECREASED.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE IN THE REGION. ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA,
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY, BRINGING
AN END TO THE CURRENT STRETCH OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE NEED FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ON SUNDAY APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. INTO MONDAY, LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE RED RIVER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL DETAILS IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, WITH THE POTENT UPPER HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH, THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
OUT OF EXTREME HEAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND IN THE MORE FAVORED, HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, PUTTING THE REGION IN A MORE
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR WILL IMPACT THOSE SITES
FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY VFR CIGS
BUT IFR VSBY LIKELY WITH THE CONVECTION THAT IMPACTS ANY SITE. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES IN LIGHT FOG WITH TSRA CHANCES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
MLC. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN MID MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 91 71 92 / 60 10 0 0
FSM 75 93 74 94 / 70 20 10 10
MLC 75 93 72 93 / 60 30 20 20
BVO 70 90 68 90 / 40 10 0 0
FYV 69 90 67 89 / 60 10 0 0
BYV 67 89 66 88 / 50 10 0 0
MKO 72 90 71 91 / 60 20 10 10
MIO 69 90 68 90 / 20 10 0 0
F10 72 90 70 91 / 60 20 10 10
HHW 75 91 72 92 / 30 40 40 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>057-059>062-
064>067-070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69
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