707
FXUS64 KTSA 120447
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH A LARGE AREA OF
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH AT
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KANSAS
BORDER EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. AS EXPECTED, DEW POINTS
HAVE INCREASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH VALUES MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE AND RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS
SAME TIME YESTERDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDEX VALUES REMAINS COVERED BY THE EXISTING ADVISORY AND NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN CREEK
AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES, WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO 105 BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, PRIMARILY EAST OF
I-49, DUE TO THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE TIMING
OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LATER THAN REFLECTED IN EARLIER FORECASTS,
WITH THE HIGHER POPS DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, ALTHOUGH WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THE THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE AREA, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE DECREASED.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE IN THE REGION. ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA,
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY, BRINGING
AN END TO THE CURRENT STRETCH OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE NEED FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ON SUNDAY APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. INTO MONDAY, LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE RED RIVER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL DETAILS IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, WITH THE POTENT UPPER HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH, THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
OUT OF EXTREME HEAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND IN THE MORE FAVORED, HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, PUTTING THE REGION IN A MORE
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY,
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL, STORM
COVERAGE WILL REDUCE WITH TIME, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELECTED TO
DROP THE MENTION OF STORMS AFTER ABOUT 08Z NORTH OF I-40 AS THE
POTENTIAL WILL DROP BELOW 30% BY THEN. WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC BUT
FAVOR THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. A RENEWAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR KMLC. ALL AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 90 72 91 / 60 20 0 0
FSM 75 92 74 93 / 70 50 10 10
MLC 75 90 73 91 / 50 50 20 20
BVO 70 89 68 90 / 60 10 0 0
FYV 69 89 68 89 / 60 20 0 0
BYV 67 88 67 89 / 30 0 0 0
MKO 72 89 71 90 / 70 30 0 10
MIO 69 90 68 90 / 20 0 0 0
F10 72 88 70 89 / 60 30 10 10
HHW 75 90 72 89 / 30 70 40 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06
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