706
FXUS64 KTSA 121017
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
517 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, GRADUALLY SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH AT
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BUILD BACK IN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN A DEEP MOIST AXIS
SITUATED FROM NEAR PAWNEE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE FORT SMITH AREA
CURRENTLY. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS AXIS/ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
HIGHER STORM CHANCES ALSO SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS WANED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE AREA. STILL, SOME OCCASIONAL PULSE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AROUND 50 TO
60 MPH AT TIMES AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST
SEVERE CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE FROM NEAR I-40 AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES. THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OWING TO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING IN
THE 3 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR RANGE. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD
DEVELOP RAPIDLY AS STORM MOTIONS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO NEARLY
STATIONARY AT TIMES. OVERALL, ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE SOME IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH MORE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE
POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AGAIN.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON, WITH RELATIVELY LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TOMORROW
FOR MOST LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE NORTH, WHILE LOW TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE STALLED OR SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY
BE PLACED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE STORM
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DAILY, MAINLY AFTERNOON
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TIED TO THE PEAK HEATING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN THANKS TO A LIGHT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL DAYS
OF NO HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK, THE RIDGE
LOOKS TO BROADEN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT
WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL WEAKEN
BUT CONTINUE. SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. A RENEWAL OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR KMLC, THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MY ALL
OCCUR. ALL AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
REMAIN LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 90 72 91 72 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 92 74 93 73 / 30 10 10 10
MLC 90 73 91 71 / 50 20 20 10
BVO 89 68 90 68 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 89 68 89 67 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 88 67 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 89 71 90 71 / 30 0 10 0
MIO 90 68 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
F10 88 70 89 70 / 40 10 10 0
HHW 90 72 89 72 / 70 40 30 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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