244
FXUS64 KTSA 130430
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.
- TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.
- BETTER STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BUILD BACK IN BY LATE WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN THIS WEEKEND HAS MOSTLY PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS DRAPED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES ON MONDAY, WITH GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE THAT
CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FAVORED OVER THE TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, BUT SOME STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MID JULY IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO
THE LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE DISSIPATING.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
THROUGH MID WEEK, A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK WESTWARD FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MORE PREVALENT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT STILL WILL
KEEP SEVERE CHANCES PRETTY LOW, BUT AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR,
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF INSTANCES OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
AFTER THAT WAVE DEPARTS, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BROADEN AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE RESULT WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLE
AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR EARLY THIS
EVENING, AND LOW/MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD SERN OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR OVERNIGHT. OVERALL VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, WHEN LIGHT
FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP SERN OK AND NWRN AR, RESULTING IN MVFR VSBY
WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS MLC/FSM. FOG TO DISSIPATE
MID MORNING MONDAY WHERE IT DEVELOPS, WITH DIURNAL CU AGAIN EXPECTED
MOST SITES. POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA AT ANY SITE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION, AS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MLC/FSM THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM
TONIGHT, THEN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 91 73 92 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 73 93 74 93 / 0 20 0 20
MLC 70 91 72 91 / 10 30 10 20
BVO 66 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 66 90 68 90 / 0 10 0 20
BYV 67 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 70 90 72 91 / 0 20 0 10
MIO 68 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
F10 70 89 70 89 / 0 20 0 10
HHW 71 87 70 88 / 50 40 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...69
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