073
FXUS64 KTSA 131734
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1234 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- WIDELY SCATTERED, AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.
- STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME GRADUAL MOISTENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN INVERTED MID-
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO THE TROUGH PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
ANY REMAINING CLUSTERS DRIFT WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH ANY PATCHY
FOG MORE LIMITED AS A RESULT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY THROUGH THIS TIME
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING WESTWARD BENEATH THE RIDGE
AXIS. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THIS REGIME TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE NORTHWARD EXTENT AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITH THE RIDGE CENTER ADJUSTED
FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL
REMAIN LARGELY FLAT THROUGH MID WEEK THANKS TO THE RIDGE AXIS
ELONGATING INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATING WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
MORE COMPACT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER INTO THE
EVENING THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. OVERALL, LAPSE RATES AND WIND SHEAR
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS TIME WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
CONTRIBUTING TO A LOW THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS. AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BENEATH THE RIDGE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A RETURN OF MORE STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL LESSEN THURSDAY AND BECOME MORE
ISOLATED ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOCAL HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT MON JUL 13 202606
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-
CENTRAL AR. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VSBYS. A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NW AR OR NE OK, BUT COVERAGE IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN LESS HERE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK/W AR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT LOWER
PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU RETURNING
TUESDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 10 10
FSM 93 73 93 73 / 20 20 20 20
MLC 91 71 90 70 / 30 20 20 10
BVO 90 69 90 69 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 90 68 89 69 / 10 10 20 20
BYV 89 66 88 68 / 0 10 20 20
MKO 90 71 90 70 / 20 10 10 10
MIO 90 69 91 70 / 0 10 10 10
F10 89 70 88 69 / 20 10 20 10
HHW 87 70 88 69 / 40 20 30 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...43
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