967
FXUS64 KTSA 291133
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- HEADLINE WORTHY HEAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES OF 105-115F. DANGEROUS HEAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
- A MORE NOTICEABLE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH MORE PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, AND HAVE
UPGRADED MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES. MAINTAINED
THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS, WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, CASTING MORE UNCERTAINTY ON JUST
HOW HOT IT WILL BE AND ON THE RESULTANT HEAT INDEX VALUES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING,
AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HEAT HEADLINES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED IN SOME PLACES, BUT
OVERALL THURSDAY MAY SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN WEDNESDAY.
ONCE MORE HOT DAY WITH LIKELY HEAT HEADLINES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME HEAT RELIEF FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE WARMING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF OUR
FORECAST SITES ACROSS FAR SERN OK AND NWRN AR. UNLIKELY ANY OF THIS
WILL IMPACT NWRN AR TERMINALS THIS MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN THIS
ACTIVITY, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GENERALLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL SITES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 100 78 98 80 / 10 20 20 20
FSM 99 77 96 78 / 40 30 40 0
MLC 100 79 98 79 / 10 10 20 0
BVO 98 75 97 76 / 20 30 20 30
FYV 95 73 92 74 / 60 30 40 10
BYV 94 72 91 73 / 50 20 40 20
MKO 100 76 97 77 / 10 20 20 10
MIO 96 75 93 76 / 20 30 40 20
F10 100 76 98 77 / 10 10 20 10
HHW 100 78 98 78 / 0 0 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ058-059-063-068-069-154-172.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ049-053-055>057-060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-176-
254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69
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