783
FXUS64 KTSA 291749
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1249 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- HEADLINE WORTHY HEAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES OF 105-115F. DANGEROUS HEAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
- A MORE NOTICEABLE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH MORE PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, AND HAVE
UPGRADED MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES. MAINTAINED
THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS, WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, CASTING MORE UNCERTAINTY ON JUST
HOW HOT IT WILL BE AND ON THE RESULTANT HEAT INDEX VALUES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING,
AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HEAT HEADLINES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED IN SOME PLACES, BUT
OVERALL THURSDAY MAY SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN WEDNESDAY.
ONCE MORE HOT DAY WITH LIKELY HEAT HEADLINES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME HEAT RELIEF FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE WARMING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SITES. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD WANE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
OVER MOSTLY THE SAME LOCATIONS. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 97 79 99 / 20 20 30 30
FSM 77 95 77 99 / 30 30 10 10
MLC 79 98 79 101 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 75 96 74 99 / 30 20 40 30
FYV 73 90 73 93 / 30 50 10 20
BYV 72 90 72 93 / 30 50 20 30
MKO 76 95 76 98 / 20 20 10 20
MIO 74 92 75 95 / 30 30 40 30
F10 76 98 76 100 / 10 10 10 20
HHW 77 96 77 98 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ058-059-063-068-
069-154-172.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-176-254-272-276-354-
376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04
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