391
FXUS64 KTSA 311107
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
607 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 604 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- HEADLINE WORTHY HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES OF 105-115F.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY DROP
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- A COOL FRONT WILL BRING MORE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE HEAT WILL RETURN BY THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY AROUND
MIDDAY. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER WILL DELAY THE WARMUP FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY.
ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO
THE HOTTEST READINGS WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR IN 2026 ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. DEW
POINTS WILL ALSO POOL NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
AND THE RESULT WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 115
DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE EXPANDED THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING TO INCLUDE MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND A SMALL
PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE WARNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 105
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE BY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
ONGOING SCATTERED AND STORMS ACROSS NE OK AND FAR NW AR WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR
BRIEF AVIATION IMPACTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. CONVECTION
DISSIPATES AROUND NOON W/ VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH LATE
EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS W/ THE STRONGEST STORMS WHICH COULD
IMPACT TERMINALS FROM SE OK INTO NW AR. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 104 71 90 69 / 40 20 0 0
FSM 103 72 91 69 / 10 30 0 0
MLC 103 71 91 68 / 10 30 0 0
BVO 102 67 90 63 / 50 0 0 0
FYV 99 67 85 64 / 20 30 0 0
BYV 99 66 83 66 / 20 40 0 10
MKO 102 70 90 67 / 30 20 0 0
MIO 100 67 85 66 / 50 20 0 0
F10 104 70 90 68 / 30 20 0 0
HHW 101 74 92 70 / 10 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ049-053-069-172.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ055>068-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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