745
FXUS64 KTSA 010454
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY MID NEXT WEEK, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
POSSIBLE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY OVERNIGHT, BUT POPS REMAIN IN THE 10-30% CHANCE RANGE.
OTHERWISE, LOW-IMPACT WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY WITHIN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS PERSISTING. THIS PROVIDES ANOTHER
PLEASANT AUGUST DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
90. TROUGHING OVER THE E CONUS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHIFT EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TICK UP AGAIN WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION AND HIGHS APPROACHING 100
DEGREES ARE FORECAST BY TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MAY IMPINGE ON NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK
AND PROVIDE SOME LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOW
THIS EVOLVES WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL, BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAT INDICES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES
ARE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE FA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT HAS RECENTLY CLEARED SE OK
AND WEST CENTRAL AR TERMINALS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MO
WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IF
THEY WILL EXPAND FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT FAR NW AR SITES. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 74 90 70 93 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 73 91 69 91 / 20 0 0 0
BVO 69 89 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 68 82 63 88 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 67 80 65 86 / 40 0 0 0
MKO 71 88 67 90 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 68 84 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
F10 72 90 68 91 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 76 91 69 91 / 20 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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