229
FXUS64 KTSA 011332
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
832 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 831 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY MID NEXT WEEK, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
POSSIBLE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN IL THIS MORNING, WITH
DECENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS ON ITS BACK SIDE. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARBY,
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH PBL MIXING BRINGING SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LEANED TOWARD THE 75TH %ILE FOR
WINDS/GUSTS TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE
FILTERED DOWN INTO NW AR AND FAR NE OK, WITH THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
DATA SUGGESTING CLOUDS WILL TRY TO HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THERE. USED A BLEND OF CONSHORT AND THE HRRR TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER THERE. ASIDE FROM THIS, FORECAST HIGHS ARE NEAR THE MEDIAN
OF THE MODEL SPREAD AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS POINT.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW AR WITH MORE CLOUD TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS
EASTERN OK WILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY BETTER THAN THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
WE HAVE HAD OF LATE.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY OVERNIGHT, BUT POPS REMAIN IN THE 10-30% CHANCE RANGE.
OTHERWISE, LOW-IMPACT WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY WITHIN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS PERSISTING. THIS PROVIDES ANOTHER
PLEASANT AUGUST DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
90. TROUGHING OVER THE E CONUS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHIFT EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TICK UP AGAIN WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION AND HIGHS APPROACHING 100
DEGREES ARE FORECAST BY TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MAY IMPINGE ON NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK
AND PROVIDE SOME LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOW
THIS EVOLVES WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL, BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAT INDICES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES
ARE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE FA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO EXPAND TOWARD NW AR AND
PERIODIC FLIGHT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
E OK AND WEST CENTRAL OK. WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 90 69 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 90 70 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 91 69 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 89 63 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 82 63 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 80 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 88 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 84 66 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
F10 90 68 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 91 69 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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