983
FXUS64 KTSA 021336
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
836 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 822 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF NE OK AND NW AR MID TO LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NE-SW
ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE OHIO AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS THIS MORNING, SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OK/TX, EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH
BROADER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM MN/WI DOWN TO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE AXIS WAS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AS WELL.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY TODAY, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. GUSTS WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER OVER NW AR, BUT NO BIG DEAL. PER LATEST SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE, HIGHS WERE RAISED A TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND (NBM) TO
BE CLOSER TO THE 75TH %ILE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD, TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW
60S, SO IT WILL STILL FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD
LAST WEEK.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT NOTABLY LIGHTER
THAN SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO LAND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100
DEGREES ARE FORECAST BY MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS WELL. THIS MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE TULSA METRO
AREA AND THE AR RIVER VALLEY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT LOW RAIN
POTENTIAL COULD RETURN WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS UPPER TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT IS PUSHED
INTO S KS / N OK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A SERIES OF SHALLOW SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
COULD THEN BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN AND STORM POTENTIAL
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MONTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 93 68 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 94 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 93 67 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 92 64 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 88 62 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 87 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 91 66 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
F10 93 67 96 68 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 93 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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