037
FXUS64 KTSA 021541
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1041 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF NE OK AND NW AR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN THE VICINITY, BUT MOVING EAST. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS NORTHERLY
BUT LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE RELATIVELY NICE DAY FOR
EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGHS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN DEPRESSED, MAINLY IN
THE 60S, WHICH WILL FURTHER HELP THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 60S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MORE
PROMINENTLY HEADING INTO MID WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RESPOND, WITH LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY, AND UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL BY MID
WEEK FOR SOME AREAS. TYPICALLY, THE TULSA AREA AND ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO REACHING HEAT CRITERIA IN
BORDERLINE SITUATIONS.
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, AND MORE
LIKELY ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A DISTANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SENDS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE WARM AND MOISTENING AIRMASS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OR TWO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COULD KICK OFF A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY EXCITED, BUT A FEW STORMS
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SEEM REASONABLE. ANY STORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FOCUS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS APPEAR PRIMED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AUGUST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 68 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 93 69 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 92 67 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 91 64 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 88 62 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 87 63 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 90 66 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 88 65 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
F10 92 66 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 91 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07
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