025
FXUS64 KTSA 031333
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
833 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 825 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
POSSIBLE TUESDAY ONWARD.
- PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PARTS OF NE OK AND NW
AR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST, YIELDING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND ALOFT OVER
THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION YESTERDAY HAS SLID EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE
LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE TIGHT
GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEE TROUGH STAYS TO OUR WEST
TODAY. UNDER PLENTY OF SUN, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE TRENDING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LIKE
YESTERDAY, WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMP FORECAST A TAD ABOVE THE MODEL
BLEND (NBM) TO BE IN LINE WITH THE 75TH %ILE OF THE MODEL SPREAD.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY, PROMOTING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES. MORE
SPECIFICALLY, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST ACROSS E
OK AND W-CENTRAL AR, WITH LOWER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS NW AR. WHILE
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S, HEAT INDICES MAY STILL APPROACH
100 DEGREES FOR A FEW OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS. ASIDE FROM
AFTERNOON CUMULUS, PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS LIKELY AGAIN AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING AND INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOWER 100S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND
RISING HEAT INDICES MAY WARRANT HEAT HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE TULSA METRO AREA AND AR RIVER VALLEY ARE MOST AT
RISK FOR HIS GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE OK AND W AR AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE, NORTH OF THE RIDGE, BROAD TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. AS A SERIES OF
IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL TEND TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS NE
OK AND NW AR THROUGH LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY WHILE RIDGING IS
SUPPRESSED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO INFLUENCE THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AT THIS RANGE,
HIGHEST RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40 LATE THIS WEEK. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HEIGHTS
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
LOW DIURNAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY PERSIST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED HEAT RISK THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, BUT POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS
HEAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED THROUGH MID MONTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
ISOLATED VALLEY FOG NOTED ACROSS FAR NW AR WHICH MAY BRIEFLY
IMPACT TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 96 73 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 96 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 96 72 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 95 67 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 92 66 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 91 67 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 94 71 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 92 69 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
F10 96 70 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 95 71 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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