103
FXUS64 KTSA 181708
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME SLIGHT
COOLING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES THIS
WEEK, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
- AT LEAST LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN A DAILY CONCERN
DUE TO DRYING FUELS AND PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW AND S-CENTRAL
CONUS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF INTENSE HEAT ACROSS
THE CWA, WITH HIGHS RISING ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WEST AND SOUTH OF THE 36-HOUR
RAINFALL FOOTPRINT, WHICH GENERALLY LIES ALONG A LINE FROM PAWNEE TO
FORT SMITH. HERE, HIGH TEMPS GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RAINFALL AXIS, HUMIDITY WILL
BE HIGHER AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD LOWER. DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY EXCEEDING 110
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS, AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT
ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE AS WELL, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, OFFERING
LITTLE HEAT RELIEF.
PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TODAY, BUT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FROM C OK TO THE TERRAIN OF SE OK AND NW AR. ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, HELPING FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL ENTER N OK/AR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND STALL IN THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE HIGHER CHANCES ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. INCREASING WIND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR, BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S
AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110+ DEGREES.
THE FRONT WILL TEND TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY THURSDAY BEFORE
WASHING OUT BY FRIDAY. WHILE THIS WILL HELP REDUCE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD. A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE FA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PROVIDES
PERSISTENT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL
WITH ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY OVER THE COMING DAYS. A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHEAST MAY PROMOTE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND BUT DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORED OVERALL. AS A RESULT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO
GROW WITH TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST, AFTER SOME LIGHT
MORNING FOG AT KBVO AND KFYV BURNS OFF THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE 06Z FORECAST WAS TO ADD A LINE TONIGHT FOR LLWS
CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES AROUND OR AFT 06Z.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 83 106 76 100 / 0 10 20 0
FSM 77 106 78 102 / 10 0 10 10
MLC 82 108 80 105 / 10 0 0 10
BVO 76 102 69 98 / 0 10 30 0
FYV 77 103 73 98 / 10 10 20 20
BYV 77 101 72 94 / 10 10 50 20
MKO 78 106 75 101 / 10 10 10 10
MIO 77 99 71 95 / 10 10 40 0
F10 79 108 75 102 / 10 0 10 10
HHW 80 104 80 103 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ058-063-068-069-
172.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-
354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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