887
FXUS64 KTSA 191123
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME SLIGHT
COOLING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES THIS
WEEK, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
- AT LEAST LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN A DAILY CONCERN
DUE TO DRYING FUELS AND PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED LARGELY BY CLEAR SKIES AND
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR ALL LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OFF MUCH, EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING. A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASED WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST PRECIP
LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND, BUT WHAT DOES WILL BE LIGHT WITH
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
THE REST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY PROVE TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MOST, EVEN AFTER RECORD TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SET UP FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COOL FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EFFICIENT MIXING OF VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS, ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY MIDDAY. WIDESPREAD
HIGHS OF 105 PLUS DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME PLACES REACHING 110 OR MORE. THE CURRENT
HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS, WHILE
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL POSITION AND
CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP THOSE PLACES SLIGHTLY COOLER. LIKE PREVIOUS
DAYS, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERRAIN AREAS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, TRAILING BACK INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
GIVEN FORECAST PROFILES, A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A PASSING MID LEVEL
WAVE. OTHERWISE, JUST SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM ANY STORM ACTIVITY. THURSDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AS HIGHS AGAIN
APPROACH 100, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY REMAINS CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL REGION, MEANING MAINLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVE PASS CLOSE BY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THOUGH, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL ANY ONE DAY AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER FRONT COULD TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS AND AT LEAST LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE 06Z FORECAST WAS TO INSERT PROB30 MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM 06Z TO 12Z TONIGHT. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SINCE YESTERDAY IN SUGGESTING A BAND OF HIGHER-BASED
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STEPPING BACK TO THE NEAR TERM, INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING, BUT CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW FOR ANY SERIOUS
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. STUCK WITH VCSH INSTEAD. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 106 76 99 74 / 10 20 0 10
FSM 109 78 104 75 / 20 20 20 0
MLC 108 80 105 76 / 0 20 20 0
BVO 104 70 98 69 / 20 20 0 0
FYV 104 74 98 70 / 20 20 10 0
BYV 102 72 94 68 / 20 50 10 0
MKO 107 75 100 72 / 0 20 10 10
MIO 101 71 95 69 / 20 30 0 0
F10 110 76 102 73 / 0 20 20 10
HHW 103 80 104 76 / 0 0 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ058-063-068-069-
172.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-
354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-
220-229.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30
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