020
FXUS64 KTSA 191743
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME SLIGHT
COOLING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- AT LEAST LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN A DAILY CONCERN
DUE TO DRYING FUELS AND PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
HEAT:
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT SHORT-TERM OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS OVERPERFORMED A BIT TODAY,
SAGGING ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OSAGE COUNTY.
PRESSURE RISES WERE ON THE ORDER OF 2-4MB EVERY 3 HOURS THIS
MORNING, BUT HAVE WANTED TO ALMOST NO RISES IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS
MEANS THE FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE MUCH MORE OF A SOUTHWARD
SURGE. FOR THOSE WHO HAPPEN TO BE NORTH OF THE FRONT, THIS IS
GREAT NEWS. FOR THOSE TO THE SOUTH...IT WILL ACTUALLY CAUSE A FEW
MORE PROBLEMS.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EFFECTIVELY BE A
PRE-FRONTAL TORCH, LEAVING DANGEROUS HEAT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DRIVEN BY VEERED 850MB FLOW, SW WINDS SURGE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 102-108°F RANGE. AS LOW- LEVEL WINDS SHIFT,
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE POOLING WILL TRAP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 70S. NBM EXCEEDANCE GUIDANCE INDICATES AN 80-90% PROBABILITY
OF HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 108°F SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TALOGA
TO CHANDLER, WITH LOCAL PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60% FOR 112°F+
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK. THIS MAINTAINS FULL JUSTIFICATION
FOR ONGOING EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.
HOWEVER, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET MORE OF A PUSH SOUTHWARD
FROM OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING SHOWERS IN SW KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WHILE FORWARD PROGRESS HAS STALLED A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL:
SCATTERED STORM INITIATION (10-30% COVERAGE) IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z, FOCUSED ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT.
DEEP-LAYER SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK, YET FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V PROFILES, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(~10°C/KM). HREF MEMBERSHIP SPREADS INDICATE THAT ANY ISOLATED
CELL PENETRATING THE CAP WILL POSE A PRIMARY HAZARD OF LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST WINDS (50-60 MPH) AND DRY LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS BEFORE
ACTIVITY WANES AFTER 03Z.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING,
USHERING IN MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
DESI INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURE SPREADS HIGHLIGHT HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN NEAR-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (HIGHS 88-94°F; >80% PROBABILITY TMAX
<95°F). IT IS AUGUST, SO EVEN NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HOT SIDE.
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE RED RIVER, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100°F (60% CHANCE TMAX
>=98°F). BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LOWER, TEMPERING OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES AREA- WIDE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. YET, THIS IS MERELY A TEMPORARY THING.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL...YOU GUESSED IT...GET BACK TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REANNOUNCES ITS PRESENCE WITH AUTHORITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE ARE ONLY TWO SCENARIOS THAT MAY
PLAY OUT. FIRST, THE RIDGE DOMINATES AND STRENGTHENS TO NEAR 600
DAM AND ANCHORS OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THE EPS/GEFS VAST
MAJORITY SHOWS THIS WITH ABOUT 80% CONFIDENCE. THIS WOULD MEAN
CONVECTION IS COMPLETELY SUPPRESSED AND INTERNAL FIGHTS OVER THE
THERMOSTAT CONTINUES. THE SECOND SCENARIO IS THE RIDGE STALLING
OVER NEW MEXICO, KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA, AND
GIVING SOME HOPE FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS. HOWEVER, THIS SCENARIO IS ON
THE LOWER END OF THINGS, GIVING ABOUT A 20% PROBABILITY.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORS SCENARIO A (80%),
SHOWING RAPID 500MB HEIGHT RISES AND WARM 850MB THERMAL ADVECTION
RETURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE AND NBM EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES FOR TMAX >=100°F CLIMB
BACK ABOVE 75% ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY.
TREAT THE MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AS A TEMPORARY BREAK, PREPARING
FOR HIGH-CONFIDENCE RETURNS TO EXCESSIVE HEAT HEADLINE THRESHOLDS
BY THE WEEKEND. SUBSEQUENT CYCLES WILL MONITOR FOR ANY ENSEMBLE
TRENDS TOWARD THE COOLER, MORE ACTIVE SCENARIO B (20%).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED AND SOME SLOW FORWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE POTENTIALLY STALLING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 100 74 102 / 20 0 10 10
FSM 79 104 75 104 / 0 10 10 0
MLC 80 106 75 105 / 0 10 10 0
BVO 69 98 68 100 / 30 0 10 0
FYV 72 99 69 100 / 20 10 10 0
BYV 72 95 70 97 / 70 10 0 10
MKO 75 102 72 102 / 10 10 10 0
MIO 71 96 70 99 / 40 0 10 0
F10 75 102 72 102 / 10 10 10 0
HHW 80 104 76 103 / 0 10 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ058-063-068-069-
172.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-
354-376.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ065-070-071-
073>075-176-272-276.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-
053.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-
220-229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...30
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