574
FXUS64 KTSA 201724
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1224 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
- SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR SOME AREAS TODAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN A DAILY CONCERN DUE TO DRYING
FUELS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS E-CENTRAL TO SE OK
TODAY, AND MORNING CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AS OF
WRITING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICNITY OF
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND 20-30% POPS WERE
MAINTAINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL
AGAIN BE PRESENT TODAY AND ANY STONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT DANGEROUS
HEAT IS STILL LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY GIVEN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS HERE. AS A RESULT, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT
ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MUCH OF E OK AND W-CENTRAL
AR.
DAYTIME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DECREASE BY
TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ZONE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG A NW-SE MOISTURE
AXIS ACROSS E OK. ASSUMING THIS DEVELOPS, QPF GENERALLY REMAINS
SPOTTY AND LIGHT, BUT A FEW LUCKY AREAS COULD PICK UP A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR TWO BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COUPLE LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT OTHERWISE, LOW-IMPACT WEATHER IS
LIKELY TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
70S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM, BUT WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. MEANWHILE, MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF E CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN A
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW PASSING OVERHEAD. THUS, WHILE HEAT WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN, PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY.
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK AND INTO W-CENTRAL AR.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A WAVE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY OVER NE OK AND NW AR. AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AND
STRONGER FLOW MOVE OVER THE CWA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
BETTER RAIN CHANCES, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. OVERALL,
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SPOTTY AND UNIMPRESSIVE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ANY IS BETTER THAN NOTHING SINCE
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT HAS NOW TAKEN HOLD IN OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S OR LOWER 100S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A REIFORCING WEAK FRONT MAY PROVIDE
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR (MID
90S), BUT OTHERWISE, HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO END UP NEAR OR
GREATER THAN 105 AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF E OK AND W-CENTRAL AR. DEPENDING
ON DEW POINT TRENDS, THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTH IN
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING DAYS. WITH CONTINUED
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH MISS OUT ON ANY RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM WILL TREND HIGHER FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
ANOTHER HIGHER COVERAGE PERIOD IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THE OVERALL STORM
COVERAGE DURING THESE FAVORED TIME FRAMES AND TERMINAL FORECASTS
WILL REFLECT THE POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 100 76 100 / 30 20 30 20
FSM 76 102 75 102 / 20 10 20 30
MLC 75 105 76 105 / 20 20 20 20
BVO 69 100 71 99 / 30 20 30 20
FYV 70 99 71 97 / 10 10 20 30
BYV 69 96 71 95 / 10 10 20 30
MKO 73 100 73 101 / 30 20 30 20
MIO 70 99 72 96 / 20 10 20 20
F10 73 103 73 103 / 20 20 20 20
HHW 76 103 75 103 / 30 20 30 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>057-059>062-
064>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
059>062-064>068-070-071-073>075-172-176-272-276-354-376.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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