777
FXUS64 KTSA 212340
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH HOT TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN INFLUENCES.
- UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH REGARD TO THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AND THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK.
- HEAT STRESS REMAINS A CONCERN ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MORNING MCS CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGIONAL CONDITIONS WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HELPING HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FURTHER EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY
HAVE ALREADY BEEN CANCELLED WITH FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY
PENDING AFTERNOON TRENDS. ANY REMNANT CONVECTION LIKELY WANES BY
EARLY EVENING WITH FOCUS THEN TURNING TOWARD THE LATE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NE MARKS THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL JET THAT WILL SPREAD SE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY FOSTER ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOW EXACTLY THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES DIFFERS
AMONGST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE, BUT THE IDEA WILL BE FOR INCREASE
STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOULD AN
ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOP, AS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE, THEN A RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD A MORE CONVECTIVELY
INFLUENCED SCENARIO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES AND A DECREASE IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES. SHOULD LESS
PRECIP DEVELOP OR TRACK AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION THEN HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS WILL BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THE MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL MCS INFLUENCES AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE DOES FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
RESULTANT STEERING FLOW MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR
STORMS SPREADING INTO THE REGION, AND BY LATE NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
LIKELY BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD FAVOR A
RETURN TO HOT AND DRY. SO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL
HOPEFULLY LEAD TO SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BUT A PROLONGED BREAK FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS NOT
READILY APPARENT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
FEW TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MCS TO DROP
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH TIMING,
THUS WILL CONTINUE PROB30 GROUPS FOR GENERAL TIMING OF GREATER
POTENTIAL. ALSO, THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STORMS EARLY
MORNING SATURDAY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO HOLD
ONTO A PROB30 WINDOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL, THOUGH THE GREATER
POTENTIAL IS WITH THE MCS. WITHIN ANY CONVECTION, BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP. BEHIND THE EXITING MCS, CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 98 75 96 / 30 40 10 10
FSM 75 99 74 98 / 20 40 20 10
MLC 75 103 74 102 / 20 40 20 0
BVO 70 95 70 94 / 30 30 10 10
FYV 72 96 69 94 / 30 50 20 10
BYV 73 96 69 92 / 30 50 20 10
MKO 72 96 72 96 / 30 50 20 10
MIO 73 95 72 94 / 30 50 10 10
F10 73 99 72 98 / 30 30 10 10
HHW 75 103 75 101 / 20 40 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>057-059>062-
064-066>068-070-071-074-154-172-176-254-272-276-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
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