900
FXUS64 KTSA 221736
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF HIGH
HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING AROUND ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY,
BRINGING AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONLY MINIMAL RAINFALL.
- AREAS OF LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF WAVE CURRENTLY
PASSING ACROSS SE KS. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CU FIELD DEVELOPING
INTO NW AR AND LIKELY MARKS THE ONSET OF LIFT IMPINGING UPON AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EITHER FAR E OK OR NW
AR BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ESE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS
IDEA SEEMS IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THE FOCUS BECOMING MORE EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION BY EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER WEST PRECIP COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW, HOWEVER AMPLE CLOUD
COVER AND COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH BEHIND THE SE KS WAVE ARE ALL
HELPING KEEP TEMPS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST FOR TODAY.
OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE RENEWED ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG A
CORRIDOR ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS PLACEMENT BUT MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR FAR EASTERN OK AND
NW AR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AREAS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE MOST LIKELY ZONE CURRENTLY SEEN AS FAR EASTERN OK AND
WESTERN AR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT
STRESS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS ANY
RELIEF FROM PERSISTENT RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
HEAT RELIEF AND A CHANCE OF SHOWER AND STORMS MAY RETURN BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE NOW APPEARS TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A CHANCE FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND AT LEAST BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
REMNANTS OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED CENTRAL OKLAHMA AND KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF ERN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN KS IS
MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD, AND GOOD CHANCE IT IMPACTS NWRN AR
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST,
WITH NONZERO CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION,
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 97 76 101 / 20 10 30 0
FSM 74 99 75 100 / 40 20 30 20
MLC 73 103 78 107 / 30 10 20 0
BVO 70 95 71 99 / 10 10 40 0
FYV 69 94 70 94 / 30 20 60 20
BYV 69 91 69 91 / 20 20 60 20
MKO 72 97 74 102 / 20 10 30 0
MIO 70 93 71 96 / 20 20 60 20
F10 72 99 76 106 / 20 10 20 0
HHW 74 102 78 104 / 30 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...69
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